OK, so I’d be interested in getting your opinions on this. Its split my study group somewhat more than any hand that I can remember in a long time. Bearing in mind the study group includes a Bracelet winner/RIO coach, BiTB members and a plethora of other good mid-high stake grinder/crushers!
The hand is not my own, but a friend that played a went deep in the event. His image would have been ‘extremely competent’ online player, that also knows how to play live. The villain is Uri Reichenstein, who as some will know came 2nd in the same event last year. Hero has observed him to be competent/good/solid.
There have been various offerings in the (facebook) group. I ran some numbers on some of the offerings and I’ll post up my responses/numbers…and some after thoughts/caveats.
PSC Barcelona 5k Day 1
I’m effective stack at 35k, both villains in hand cover by 15-20k
I open JdJh UTG to 1200, Spanish fish UTG+1 makes it 3000, Uri Reichenstein on BTN tank calls, folds back to me and I complete
Flop 9s7s3d Pot (10150)
I check, Spain checks, Uri 4200, I call, Spain tanks so long that I call the clock on him* then folds
*I’m certain he has AK (not ss) given length of time he dwells and am hoping he squeezes to fold out Uri so I can get HU with him
Turn 9s7s3d 6h Pot (18550)
I check, Uri checks
River 9s7s3d6h 8c Pot (18550)
I can potentially get to river like this with something like 33, 77, 99-KK; all nfd’s; KT-KQss, QJss; JTs, J9s, T9s, T8s, 98s, 65s.
Uri has played extremely well so far at the table and I’ve no reason to believe that he’s not a very good player, therefore I’d range him on river somewhere around 88, TT-KK, AKs, AQss, KQss. Potentially a little looser than this with the button and fish in the pot this deep if he thinks I’m rarely 4b’ing but I don’t want to make too many assumptions.
Given all of this info, what do I do with JJ here and what do I do with the rest of my range (sets/bricked fds/one pair/ straights)? Have discussed this one with Jack for hours already so looking for some other viewpoints.