Flat vs shove 20 players left in the double deuce

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

Flat vs shove 20 players left in the double deuce

Blinds: t250,000/t500,000 (6 Players) BN: 11,385,331
SB: 6,428,410
BB: 8,927,245 (Hero)
UTG: 5,157,747
MP: 6,593,637
CO: 16,126,690
Preflop (750,000) Hero is BB with Q K
2 folds, CO raises to 1,000,000, 2 folds, Hero raises to 8,877,245 and is all in, CO calls 7,877,245

So the villain in question i have around 150 hands on and he is a rec. He's been very active and raising often. His rfi from the co is 40% but with such a small sample and vs 2 re jam stacks this is prob not accurate and possibly somewhat tighter. I have seen him showdown 2 hands previously on this table, one where he 3x from the co and showed JJ. The other hand he open 2x from hj and showed J10s. This leads me to believe his range could be substantially weaker when he makes the 2x sizing.

So shoving here is obv +ev but is it more profitable than flatting? When we flat and catch we can have him dominated very often ( especially if he is splitting his range with the two pre flop sizings) and KQs flop amazingly. On the other hand the spr will only be 3 on the flop and when we whiff i dont know how much floating we will be able to do against an aggressive player.

I decided to shove given the sizing tell pre and because it's a very profitable shove. What do you guys think?

Average chip stack was 8,500,000 ish so i was right around average at the time.

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