Villian limps from utg+1 i raise to 15 from CO with 4d3d (i chose 15 because i knew he would play fit or fold heads up) everyone folds to villian who calls the extra 10

I have the effective stack of about 130 -140 after the raise
Flop ($33)

Kd 3s 8d

Villian checks. I bet 20 or 25 he calls

Turn 7c

His range here is AK -k10, 8x, and flush draws. (Set highly unlikely)

Hands i expect him to fold to a shove k10 -kj, all 8s (except 87 obv) and all flush draws. If i get called i expect to have 30% equity against his kings

Should i shove and try to get him to fold these hands of his range or take a free river and risk losing the pot to those hands or getting bluffed on the river to his missed flushes?

Ive counted 76 combos of 8s and kings i expect him to fold (all a8, 108, 98, 68, all k10, half kj, 2 combos of kq) and 41 combos he is continuing against a shove (all ak, all 88, 1 combo of 33, 10 combos of kq and 6 combos of kj, all 78) i count 5 flush draw combos he will fold (qj, qt, aj, a10, aq) he may continue with 910d or 67d.

Is this a reasonable estimate by me? Im new at this kind of anaylsis so someone helping me with the math from here would be appreciated!