2/4 NL River spot from Private Online Game

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2/4 NL River spot from Private Online Game

Context: Hero is playing in a 5-handed 2/4NL private online game. Effective stacks are ~$650

Folded to SB who opens to 12. Hero 3b from BB to 50 with JhJd.

Flop is Kd 3s 5s. SB checks, Hero checks
Turn is Th. SB bets 60. Hero Calls
River is 7d. SB shoves for 540. Hero ??

I thought using an MDF analysis here would be a good way to come to a decision.

MDF = Pot / (Pot + Bet) = 220 / (220 + 540) = 29%. I think I have about 53 total combos of hands to bluff catch with.

JTo 12 combos
Qto 12 combos
K9s 4 combos
ATo (one spade) 6 combos
ATo (no spade) 6 combos
JJ 6 combos
QQ 6 combos
TT 2 combos
Total Combos: 54

54*29% = 15 combos that we should call with.

15 ideal combos that we should call with:
TT 2 combos
ATo (no spade) 6 combos
K9s 4 combos
QQ (no spade) 3 combos

Given this analysis, I should fold with JhJd?

Follow up question: Am I correct to only include hands with showdown value that I get to the river with in my MDF analysis (the 54 total combos from the analysis). Why don't I also include hands that I get to river with that don't have any showdown value (AQ or QJ for instance if I were to ever play them that way).

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