Am I just a water buffalo?

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

Am I just a water buffalo?

Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (6 Players) BN: $51.86
SB: $79.33
BB: $50.00
UTG: $47.40
MP: $53.64
CO: $96.08 (Hero)
Preflop ($0.75) Hero is CO with J K
2 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, BN calls $1.50, SB calls $1.25, BB calls $1.00
Flop ($6.00) 6 7 K
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $2.85, BN calls $2.85, SB folds, BB folds
Turn ($11.70) 6 7 K A
Hero bets $5.56, BN raises to $15.00, Hero calls $9.44
River ($41.70) 6 7 K A 4
Hero checks, BN bets $32.51 and is all in, Hero calls $32.51
Final Pot BN wins and shows three of a kind, Sevens.
CO lost and shows a pair of Kings.
BN wins $104.72
Rake is $2.00

I'm not necessarily concerned about this particular hand, but more so I am interested in learning about how to think about hands correctly in general etc.
So BU i didn't have many hands on at all but I had him marked as a fish before, but when I looked he happened to be playing 4 tables (probably marked fishy because he wasn't topped up to 100bb at some point).
On this flop Kd7c6c, I assume that combinations like 77,66, and 76s will raise an insane amount, given the fact that we are betting on that draw board into 4 people for only half pot. On the turn, he really should have very few big hands, and I believe that most of his hands like A7s,A6s would be folding pre or 3betting, or if he got to the flop he would be folding flop a decent amount.

To repeat myself a little i am just assuming he gets to the turn basically never with any nut hands, extremely rare other than exactly a6 or a7s that would be 3betting a lot pre, and also if he flatted would fold a decent bit, and occasionally if he magically got to the turn with two pair he also once in a while would just flat. (IS THIS A DECENT ASSUMPTION???)
given all of these facts we are way ahead of a lot of draws and i think that betting turn makes more sense.

So on turn we have the decision to check or bet, and for all of the reasons stated above, I think that betting turn makes a lot of sense to get value from draws and weak pairs and have him fold his portion of equity.

When we get to he turn I don't think he is representing very many combintations and i think that he floats a lot of backdoor flushdraws, gutshots, and also club draws so he has a lot of bluffs in his range.

The river 4 is one of the safest cards in the deck.

Given all of the assumptions i made about his ranges and how bluff heavy his turn raise range was, I called river needing to win 30% to break even.

This was my logic. Apparently my assumptions are incorrect about his flop flatting and raising range.

After looking at this maybe it doesn't need to be in the forum but I think it is interesting, and I tstill dont know if betting the turn is always best.

comments are appreciated thank u

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