Weird spot w top two OTR - BUT... what is his c/c range?

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

Weird spot w top two OTR - BUT... what is his c/c range?

Blinds: $1.00/$2.00 (6 Players) BN: $318.92
SB: $268.18
BB: $198.25
UTG: $232.01
MP: $361.98 (Hero)
CO: $200.00
Preflop ($3.00) Hero is MP with Q A
UTG raises to $5.00, Hero calls $5.00, 2 folds, SB calls $4.00, BB folds
Flop ($17.00) Q A 3
SB checks, UTG bets $10.00, Hero calls $10.00, SB folds
Turn ($37.00) Q A 3 9
UTG bets $52.73, Hero calls $52.73
River ($142.46) Q A 3 9 4
UTG checks, Hero

So Villain opens 20% and is on the weak/tightish site (24%WTS) - but overall a solid regular

As a note I have that he has a tendency for betsize tells and overbets have been for value so far (in position at least)

Goint straight to the hand:

OTF I think I shouldn't have a raisingrange given his cbet into two and in general, although I am not 100% sure and given that SB is a Spot and probably calls wether or not I raise it might have been a good exploitative play!?..

cbet range: heart/Gutter/combodraws, AK, AJ, AT, AQ, AA, QQ; ((33)), A3s

OTT we never fold but do we shove?! I don't think so although it is tempting again
range for the overbet I think are K high combodraws, AQ, AA, QQ, 33, ((A3)), (AK)

OTR I think this is where the hand gets really interesting. He has ~164$ behind.

First I obviously wanted to snapshove/bet here but then I started to think about it and I am torn between two assumptions here:

  1. He either has a busted heart combodraw OR
    a) as hands that beat me and want to induce always: AA/(33)/QQ/AQ/(99)
    b) and only sometimes a merged range of AK, A3, A9 that might check call

which overall I found was too thin to really valuebet... even though I did not do the exact math.

  1. As far as I am concerned the funny reality is that I will NEVER have AA/QQ/33 here bc I always 3bet them and fold 33
    AND I will never have a busted combodraw because I would have 3bet KJ and JT of hearts.

So my true range here is AQ and AJ/AT suited since I the only suited combo I would sometimes flat is blocked (KQs).
...
My PERCEIVED range though probably does have busted draws and it would feel weird to check behind AQ here.

Found this very interesting, thoughts very much appreciated!

Kind regards

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