hands 4 review

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hands 4 review

IPoker, $0.05/$0.10 Pot Limit Omaha Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $14.07 (140.7 bb)
BB: $17.67 (176.7 bb)
MP: $4.61 (46.1 bb)
CO: $24.14 (241.4 bb)
Hero (BTN): $3.80 (38 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with 8c As Kd Kh
MP folds, CO raises to $0.35, Hero raises to $1.20, 2 folds, CO calls $0.85

Note our short stack size and the fact that our hand is rainbow. CO is playing 25/16 over 292 hands. His MIDDLE UO PFR, which I assume refers to BU and CO but I'm not really sure on how to find CO RFI stat in HM2, is 16%. You have aces 2.5% of the time normally, but with our ace blocker it should be substantially less. So assuming he is opening 16% of the time in the CO, I think we should have a profitable three bet here.

Omaha Hi Simulation ?
600,000 trials (Randomized)
Hand Equity Wins Ties
AsKhKc8d 56.04% 324,456 23,623
16% 43.96% 251,921 23,623

Here we have a 12% edge against a PPT 16% opening range, which I think is pretty substantial. Our hand will have tremendous difficulties post flop imo if we just flat, and we are also not keen on having more players in the pot as then our one pair will become even harder to play after the flop. Given our short stack size we do not have to worry about getting four bet, because we can just stack off, and the times we do run into AA are less catastrophic.

Of course most of our equity is derived from the time our opponent does not have aces.

Omaha Hi Simulation ?
600,000 trials (Randomized)
Hand Equity Wins Ties
AsKhKc8d 61.55% 355,876 26,900
16%!AA 38.45% 217,224 26,900

Flop: ($2.55) 5h 4s 7c (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $2.41

Not a great flop, as the board is connected, but with an SPR of 1, and our opponent perhaps having a selection bias against the low and low-middle sort of cards that smash this flop I think we are fine to stack off here.

PPT seems to think this flop slightly worsens our equity but is still quite fine.

Omaha Hi Simulation ?
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: 5h4s7c
Hand Equity Wins Ties
AsKhKc8d 67.55% 392,644 25,294
16%!AA 32.45% 182,062 25,294

IPoker, $0.05/$0.10 Pot Limit Omaha Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $33.03 (330.3 bb)
Hero (BB): $9.95 (99.5 bb)
UTG: $13.32 (133.2 bb)
MP: $9.90 (99 bb) 75/15
CO: $11.88 (118.8 bb)
BTN: $8.36 (83.6 bb) 60/3

Preflop: Hero is BB with Kd 8c 7d 9h
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.25, CO folds, BTN calls $0.25, SB folds, Hero calls $0.15

Our hand, with a hangler, is not great, but MP has made a 2.5x open so we are getting a good price. Both opponents are quite loose, which suggests we might have greater implied odds in general, and BTN is apt to have a particularly loose range. Humbly I might suggest that my opponents will play worse than me after the flop, on account of their apparent frequent errors before the flop, and while my absolute position is poor, my relative position is good. Overall I would say that my position counts against me. Please note I am closing the action.

It is 15 to win 65 or 4.33:1. Against the following ranges, I have 30%, which equates to 2.3:1. While I will not maintain that hot and cold equity before the flop can dictate our preflop decisions, I do think that when you have a dramatic gap between your pot odds and your hot and cold equity in your favour then you do have a call.

Omaha Hi Simulation ?
600,000 trials (Randomized)
Hand Equity Wins Ties
Kd7d8c9h 30.32% 176,073 11,725
15% 40.78% 239,337 10,707
5%-60% 28.91% 166,681 13,558

Flop: ($0.80) 4s 5d 9d (3 players)
Hero bets $0.51, MP calls $0.51, BTN calls $0.51

Here we flop top pair + nut gutshot + second nut flush draw. Do we go for the check raise, check call, bet-stack off, bet-call, bet-fold? What is our best flop plan? I opted to lead. I have only 62 and 35 hands on both opponents, but their aggression factor is fairly low, so it could be that the times I do get in a check raise I end up not even being a favourite. My equity against AA + FD is pretty bad.

Omaha Hi Simulation ?
34,440 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 9d5d4s
Hand Equity Wins Ties
Kd7d8c9h 34.84% 11,998 0
AdAhQd 65.16% 22,442 0

Of course if MP is c-betting all over pairs or even some high card no draw combos then this would be a good spot to check raise, but if he is only cbetting when he connects then check raising is a disaster, because it gives free cards all of the time to weak hands and stacks off when I am in trouble. We cannot count on 63/3 w/ 0.8 agg factor button to bet light, although it is certainly possible. So while in general this is a good spot to check raise, in this instance I think it would be a mistake, on account of our opponents' general passivity. In fact, it could well be that if we are to check we should check call, giving our opponents strong ranges just for a flop bet, because they are so passive, and it could also be that this line is superior to checking.

But I do like a donk bet. We have a strong but vulnerable hand. By betting we can win the pot immediately and prevent over cards that come from giving our opponents the best hand. There are some drawbacks, we could hit a diamond and lose a much bigger pot to the nut flush, and getting raised would be quite uncomfortable imo. But our opponents are loose, and we can get quite a bit of value from them with our holding. I can see them peeling with weak made hands and weak draws that do not have that much equity against us. They could easily make second best on the turn. I think we are unlikely to face a semi bluff raise, which would be quite problematic. In fact I suspect we are getting raised very seldomly.

Turn: ($2.33) Th (3 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $1.41, BTN calls $1.41, Hero folds

Another interesting spot imo. at this point I was worried about how few of my outs were too the nuts, and three way decided to fold.

Will post results in a while after there is some discussion. More hands to follow tomorrow.

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