PL100 - River decision - Straight on Flush board

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PL100 - River decision - Straight on Flush board

Blinds: $0.50/$1.00 (5 Players) UTG: $410.44
CO: $73.56
BN: $65.95 (Hero)
SB: $115.11
BB: $105.55
Preflop ($1.50) Hero is BN with 2 J A Q
Hero raises to $3.50, BB calls $3.00, CO calls $2.50
Flop ($10.50) Q T 4
BB checks, CO checks, Hero bets $7.00, BB calls $7.00, CO folds
Turn ($24.50) Q T 4 3
BB checks, Hero bets $24.50, BB calls $24.50
River ($73.50) Q T 4 3 K
BB bets $70.55 and is all in, Hero calls $30.95 and is all in

Hi guys,

Here is another river spot where I struggle. Villain is a loose aggressive 65/38 who's been fairly active.

The reason why I'm only 66bb is because I implemented a stop loss rule that was active at the time.

Preflop
- I think opening AQJ2r only on the button is fine, also it has to be folded to a 3B and it is a fold from any other position.

Flop
- On the Flop, I have TPTK with the nut gutshot, the Ad blocker, so I think a CBet is fine.
- When VIllain calls, given his loose tendency I'm putting him on a very wide range :
T4,Q4,KK,(4+,89+!Q):(cchh,ccdd,hhdd) //// to the exclusion of QT+ with which given my stack he would probably check/raise jam

Turn
- With a SPR of 2 on a relatively safe turn, having the Ad nut blocker, I'm potting to get stacks in to what might be the best hand a lot of the time.
Even against T4, Q4, KK I still have good equity if called.
- When he calls I'm putting him on a tighter range given the pot sized bet and the diamonds : (89+!Q):dd,J9,Q / excluding KK and T4+

River
- This is tricky for me here.
He's essentially putting the rest of my stack which is giving me 3.4:1 odds ( I need 23% equity to break even).
If I'm splitting his range into A/ Flushes, B/ Straights and Top set (incorrect value shoves)...

I should fold here, having a -5€ EV call here.

What do you think of this spot and analysis?
How would you have played the hand and why?

Thanks a lot guys

Guillaume

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