PL200 - River decision - Flopped top Set + Nut FD on a straight board

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PL200 - River decision - Flopped top Set + Nut FD on a straight board

Blinds: $1.00/$2.00 (3 Players) BN: $80.80
SB: $478.51 (Hero)
BB: $450.05
Preflop ($3.00) Hero is SB with A 7 A 2
BN folds, Hero raises to $6.00, BB raises to $18.00, Hero calls $12.00
Flop ($36.00) 4 A 3
Hero checks, BB bets $18.00, Hero raises to $67.00, BB calls $49.00
Turn ($170.00) 4 A 3 2
Hero checks, BB bets $128.00, Hero calls $128.00
River ($426.00) 4 A 3 2 8
Hero checks, BB bets $237.05 and is all in, Hero calls $237.05

Hi guys,

Here is a river call I'm questioning. After reviewing my hand it seems that I was not able to release what was a huge hand on the flop, but not the nuts, and made a bad river call. I like my flop check raise (although I'm wondering if a lead might not be better EV), and I like my turn check call as I have the equity required even against a pot sized bet.

The interesting thing about this hand is that I flopped the world : top set with nut FD, on a straight board with someone holding 25. Even against 25 I have 65% equity, and 61% equity against 25 + FD, so I am check/raising for value here (I think).

Flop Action
The flopped straight is 25
Even against the flopped straight, my hand is so strong that I have 61%-65% against the straight / straight+FD.
I'm Check/raising for value and trying to stack off, being a favorite even against the worst hands. Would leading be a better EV play?

Turn Action
Now the turn brings a lot of straights: any A5,25, 35, 45, 56
As the straight is way more likely, I have to be very careful about my play.
My hand has 39% equity even against the worst possible hand (the straight).
My best line is to check call as I'll have enough odds to continue (33% equity needed if he bets pot) given the likelihood of straights here.

River action

On the river... I don't really know what's the right play.

  • If I input on PJ that he's betting with the nuts and bluffing missed hearts, my call is profitable. I don't even put him bluffing with 55 as a blocker here, as they are not competent enough to me at these stakes to do that.

  • If I think that they clearly underbluff at these stakes, and he would only bet a straight, then I should obviously fold. And given what I know of this pool, this is what I would do now.

What would you have done here and why?

Thanks guys.

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