Besides rivering a diamond, J, or 2 all I'll have is a bluffcatcher with SPR ~1; not a very good scenario imo. Feel like it gives villain the chance to barrel all of his air/missed draws on all blank rivers, as well as to check-back and showdown all J5+ type of hands on nut-changing rivers, or to accurately bluff or value-bet otherwise.
Jan. 11, 2017 | 5:03 p.m.
Totally agree that this isn't the sort of hand where I want to force money in, and as I experienced it indeed got awkward on the turn. However, I'm not sure on your statement that medium hands are exactly the ones I'm supposed to call... I mean, literally none of my outs is to the nuts. Don't you think that improving to a flush, straight, or set, can cause a lot of trouble? I would much rather c/c bare nut flush draw or QJT, for example.
Jan. 11, 2017 | 4:52 p.m.
SPR is below 3. If he jams we're probably forced to call, which seems to be a pretty big overplay of our hand... And like DirtyD says, I feel like we're in between value and a bluff, which in my eyes would make river play even more confusing.
Jan. 9, 2017 | 1:46 p.m.
BB: $466.87 (Hero)
Jan. 9, 2017 | 1:41 p.m.
UTG: $200.00 (Hero)
Jan. 9, 2017 | 1:29 p.m.
Agree with your thoughts on pre-flop. Whether to actually call or not is up for debate I guess. Agree with flop thoughts, although he c-bets rather small, which seems kinda fishy. On the turn I think raising accomplishes exactly nothing: besides AK/AA you're not getting any better hands to fold, nor will you be able to make worse hands call (besides some strong combo draws that you're still ahead of I guess). As you already mention yourself you have some sort of showdown value already, and by raising you risk inflating the pot with all your non-nut draws. Additionally, an 8 gives you the nuts, usually a diamond or a Q will be good too, and even a K, J, or 9 might be good. And a lot of other connecting river cards make it tough for him too. So calling again ott, in combination with the information you gain from the actual river card and his action, allows you to accurately bluff-catch, value-bet, bluff, or showdown your hand, while maybe even bluff-raising can be an option on some occasions.
From my experience when an opponent barrels through in spot like this it's rarely a bluff, because he should be just as afraid that you just got there with diamonds. It's also hard to see him value-bet any non-flush hands here I guess. On top of that he opened with a strong UTG range, which makes it that more likely that he has high suited Broadway cards (for a better flush than yours). So yeah long story short, I think you played the hand perfectly fine. Maybe someone with PJ can convince us otherwise on whether to call river or not.
Dec. 27, 2016 | 8:37 p.m.
Imo the only two viable options to isolate a presumable weaker player (with 100bb stacks) are to dominate a wide stack off range, or to take advantage of a fit-or-fold mentality. Clearly your hand doesn't fit the first requirement. Given your read on villain so far it seems fair to try and isolate him and then to take down the pot post-flop with a c-bet very often (until he starts fighting back). The board is so light and dry, plus you have some sort of blockers to continuing hands. For these reasons I think you would've been much better off to just pot it pre-flop, and then follow through with a c-bet on this excellent board.
(Imo the only times to consider 3-betting smaller than pot is against a villain who is opening way too wide, but who fights back one way are the other post-flop. That way - instead of just 3-betting hands that are capable of dominating his post-flop stack-off range (at SPR 3-5) - you get to exploit his looseness even further by 3-betting some of the weaker multi-component hands too, because you preserved post-flop maneuverability.)
Dec. 27, 2016 | 8:18 p.m.
Obviously on the flop your hand is strong enough to continue with, and imo c/r ott and jamming otr is definitely a viable option. Not really getting the small river bet though. His small sizing on the turn is what allows you to take this line in the first place, and not following through with a river ship feels like a real shame. When choosing this line I would also prefer a turn c/r that's a little bit bigger, like 31 or so, which still leaves a nice river shove.
That said, I think leading the flop is clearly best, for several reasons. Although you didn't 3-bet pre-flop, and thus don't have the strongest of hands in your range anymore, this board is still supposed to hit you much better than your opponent. Therefore villain probably won't blindly c-bet all the time. This has two implications: #1) Villain will check back some hands and be able to realize equity, while he can also use his position and the development of the board to take away the pot on a later street. When that happens you're hand isn't getting the protection it needed on the flop, you deny yourself the opportunity to take down the pot there and then, and you're liable to either fold or call incorrectly somewhere down the line. By donking you have some immediate fold equity, can get some value/protection for what's likely to be the best hand, and negate villain's positional advantage. #2) The range you'r up against after c/c the c-bet is stronger than the range you would've been up against if you had donk-bet and villain had floated. So for the times that the both of you are willing to put money into the pot on the flop, by donk-betting you're in a much better spot than by c/c.
Donk-betting has the added benefit of defining villain's range while keeping your's undefined: After c/c you can still have some strong hands in your range (bare top two, midset) but not a whole lot, while by donking you're range still contains all strong hands. Although by c/c you still get to use your blockers on some occasions, it's not ideal, because it basically means that you're "drawing to a bluffing opportunity", or hoping for the action to slow down on later streets otherwise. On the same token, if you're the one doing the betting and villain doesn't raise, it defines/weakens his range significantly, while as mentioned you still have all the strong hands in your range. Plus on any club or Broadway turn or river you can happily continue repping the nuts because of your strong blockers.
Dec. 27, 2016 | 4:40 p.m.
UTG: $100.00 (Hero)
Dec. 22, 2016 | 1:18 p.m.
I agree. Imo it makes much more sense for villain to c-bet a whole lot smaller (with both air and value) on such a static board, so who knows wtf he's doing this with. Might be that he's trying to level you (hoping you think that he would never play nut flush like this), might also be that he's trying to look strong with a blocker or something, might also be that he's playing any flush like this. Basically completely readless on the opponent, and given SPR, I don't see how you can get away from this one.
Dec. 22, 2016 | 12:50 p.m.
BB: $1086.40 (Hero)
Dec. 20, 2016 | 4:40 p.m.
Yeah basically only flushes... Felt like he wouldn't bet those himself, and like he would rarely bluff, hence the bet.
Dec. 12, 2016 | 11:07 p.m.
Totally feel the difficulty you're experiencing here, I struggle with such spots too. One thing I'm comfortable doing in similar situations against opponents with aggressive tendencies is to cb/3b with hands that still have equity in case he happens to have trips here (so basically JT+). Agree with DirtyD that check back seems very reasonable here.
Dec. 2, 2016 | 10:19 p.m.
Agree with the points above. However, I also feel like he probably c-bets his entire range here, and although he has such a strong 3-bet range, I can also think of some hands that can't stand a lot of heat, such as AA hands that didn't improve on this flop, and like AKQJ, AKJT, AQJT, KQJT, AKQ9ds, KKds, etc. Since the board is very dry, stacks are deep, you have an 8, and like said he probably c-bets 100%, maybe a (small) bluff-raise is an idea?
Dec. 2, 2016 | 10:08 p.m.
Thanks for that illuminating response.
Dec. 2, 2016 | 9:54 p.m.
Clear analyses guys, appreciated
Dec. 2, 2016 | 9:47 p.m.
Nov. 30, 2016 | 11:24 p.m.
CO: $100.00 (Hero)
Nov. 30, 2016 | 11:20 p.m.
UTG: $100.00 (Hero)
Nov. 30, 2016 | 11:08 p.m.
I guess it depends on the opponent. I agree that you block quite a few missed draws he could possibly have, and you block not a single pair. But if he's a reg he's still far more likely to jam his made hands on the turn. And it's not like there are no draws left for him to have, nfd comes to mind, as well as duplicate oesd/wrap. It's possible you'll get looked up by AAss though, and I can also imagine maybe a hand like two pair + a draw that saw no need jamming the turn. Fishes on the other hand often times just flat hands like sets (besides QQ) and two pair, and against such a player i definitely wouldn't empty the clip. All that said, I think you could and should have tailored your bet-sizing differently, so that you're left with a river bet that's closer to the size of the pot than it is now. For example, the aforementioned AAss gets great odds to call on the river now.
Nov. 30, 2016 | 10:03 p.m.
Agree on pre, thx for that! Regarding jamming the flop... don't you think that would be over playing the hand a bit (at 150bb)? Feel like only hands that beat me (and have me basically drawing dead) will gii, while all worse hands probably fold. So it would solely be for protection purposes?
Nov. 30, 2016 | 9:41 p.m.
Thx for convincing argument in favor of barreling! (accidentally "flagged" your comment, not sure what that means")