Humans are curious by nature, there's nothing wrong with you if you feel like you really need to know what the other person has even if you're fairly sure he's got you beat - it's just the way we're wired!
Every time you make a call that you know was bad just say to yourself 'I know that was a bad call, I need to trust my analysis'. Then the next time you're in a spot where you're going to make a similar call think back to that moment and how bad you felt when you realised you didn't make that call and slowly you will start to be ok with not knowing for sure. It's a long process that we're all still deal with!
Jan. 19, 2017 | 11:29 a.m.
In! Good luck man, keep it steady and realise that variance is a thing so don't be disheartened if January doesn't go as planned - sometimes things just don't go our way!
Jan. 19, 2017 | 11:25 a.m.
Ok that makes a lot of sense, thanks for the response :)
Jan. 18, 2017 | 3:29 a.m.
@38:40 the QQ hand in the top right, you said that on such a dry flop if villain cbet around 1/3 with the whole of his range that you would consider x/r this hand. When watching I thought I would never check raise mainly because villain has a range advantage on such a dry board with him more likely to have AA/KK than we are.
Thinking about it is it because QQ is going to be close to the top of our range when we flat the 3bet here and can still get called by weaker hands such as JJ/TT? I imagine bluffs in this spot would be hands like 54 with a bdfd if we flat those preflop?
What would you do if you x/r QQ in this spot vs a 1/3 pot bet and villain 3bets or do you think that's too unlikely to consider?
Jan. 16, 2017 | 8:55 p.m.
In these spots it can be quite tough to find the fold button especially after we flop so well but we need to think of the range of hands villain is doing this with.
It is unlikely that villain would wait until the diamond flush completes on the river before raising a worse two pair such as A2, KT etc. For me especially at these stakes this is almost always a flush that wants to raise for value but doesn't want to raise big because it definitely wants a call - and hardly ever a bluff.
Now, if you've been watching him or you have a HUD that tells you he's a total maniac and has been raising like this on rivers before with weaker hands for value then it becomes a lot closer because you now beat some of the hands he can be raising (incorrectly) for value. If you also think villain has a bluffing range in this spot then again it becomes closer as you now beat all his bluffs.
TL;DR - at these stakes this sizing on the river after being passive throughout the hand is almost never a bluff and almost always a flush.
P.S - Also a quick note - I would probably raise 3x BvB, you're giving him too good a price to call with a wide range in position if you make it 2x
Jan. 9, 2017 | 2:23 p.m.
I disagree that we'll have loads of better hands to call here with, because of that I would probably call - coupled with the fact that I'm a Curious Cathy.
Given that we raised UTG we may not open 33 depending on what your preflop strategy looks like, the only 5x we could conceivably have is A5s and 65s but I think we just call those on the flop vs the lead rather than raise. This means that the top of our range is AA, KK, QQ, 55 and AQ when we raise preflop and raise the lead on the flop.
Dec. 22, 2016 | 10:55 a.m.
Obviously knowing what your hand is is going to be important when it comes to deciding if it's an easy jam. However going from what you've said I don't think either you or your friend are spot on in your analysis.
First of all you said that he's going to be raise/folding a lot and that you would jam 45s here. You're right he's going to be raising a lot of hands but he's also going to be priced into a call with a lot of hands as well so he won't be raising say 50% and then only calling the top 10-5% he should be calling a lot wider.
Secondly your friend said that he would fold 88 here unless I've read that wrong? Obviously that's suuuuper tight and 88 is an easy re-jam there.
Dec. 9, 2016 | 6:21 p.m.
Hi Steve, great video as usual - love these DB reviews.
Quick question but I'll probably have some more after I've re-watched it, when looking at how profitable the worst hands you're defending in the BB are; how wide do you make the selection? For example do you include suited aces, do you select a certain amount of suited kings such as K7s-K2s? This is something I would like to look at deeper in my game as my current winrate from the BB is just over -50bb/100 and feel this is my weakest position to play from.
Dec. 8, 2016 | 5:27 a.m.
Around 7-8 minutes in on bottom right you agree with folding A9s to a 3bet button v SB, obviously it's not an amazing hand by any stretch but this seems a little too tight for me? Would ATs be the bottom of your Axs calling range in that spot?
Nov. 12, 2016 | 6:34 p.m.
Hey guys and gals,
Would like to hear feedback from people who play predominantly live poker - is there an app dedicated for tracking specific hands (what you held, the action, showdown etc.) and if not would that be something that you would use? I see a lot of apps for tracking results but none that I saw have the ability to note down how you played a specific hand.
Having tried to take notes on hands I've played before I've found it inefficient to open a note and then type out exactly what I had and all the action that took place. Wondering if there's a gap in the market here...
Thanks in advance!
Nov. 12, 2016 | 5:37 p.m.
Wow surprised how long it's been since I last posted on here, last week really got away from me... been grinding a lot live rather than online recently. Didn't play very well these past few sessions, played while tilting which lost me a couple of buy-ins and wasn't thinking about my play at all. Playing in auto pilot is the worst for me, really basic 'level 1' thinking which is obviously bollocks.
Also didn't have the motivation to play cash online after those few sessions but had to hit the VPPs to stay gold star so grinded spin and gos for those last 250 or so VPPs. Managed to bink a 25x spin on the $5 which was pretty sweet but what surprised me the most was that I wanted to keep playing them after hitting my VPPs. Played them the past couple of days but I think I've gotten over my masochistic feelings for now - I have no idea how anyone could grind them for a living, so tilting.
I'll post the graph below as well as my general stats for the past 25K hands. If anyone has some insight into some leaks it would be much appreciated.
Did my pictures in a different way this time, let me know if they're difficult for anyone to see.
Played a session after taking those screenshots but before writing this and lost a couple of buy-ins. Played while feeling very tired as I felt obligated to as it will be more time wasted but it should be about the quality of your sessions rather than the quantity.
GL at the tables!
Nov. 3, 2016 | 6:11 p.m.
I think the important thing to remember about the EV line is that it's just an indicator of how well you're running in all in pots - not actually how well you're running overall. It could be the case that you're below you're EV line but in actuality you're running well - flopping set over set, straight over straight etc.
So the case here could very well be that you're playing the same as you have been but have been winning all your flips and a couple of KK v AA kind of hands. This would have your EV line way below your green line but it doesn't mean you're doing anything bad.
Oct. 25, 2016 | 4:07 p.m.
Doing a new thing now where I'm straight up not looking at my results. Like at all. Not after a session, not after a day, only when absolutely necessary. In this case it will be whenever I post my 5K hand update or when I want to spend StarsCoins. I think it's helped not worrying about results and adds a bit of excitement to these posts for me. Only problem is I need to make sure I'm still putting in quality sessions and not trying to speed through the last few hundred hands so I can see my results which is what I feel like I did tonight but whatever. Let's see how I've done!
Little bit disappointed if I'm honest as I felt like it had gone better than that but there's quite a big gap between the green and orange line which might have something to do with it. Still got a lot to learn and this should motivate me to study hardrer and get that green line going up!
GL at the tables!
Oct. 25, 2016 | 4:38 a.m.
What I do when that happens to me is just stay awake through a whole day then go to bed at a regular time. So if I'm getting up at 8pm then going to bed at 11am for example if I want to go back to a usual sleep cycle I wake up at 8pm then don't go to bed until around 10/11pm the next day.
Oct. 24, 2016 | 5:39 p.m.
Curious to find out why this is in your 4betting range - for me it plays really well as a call preflop.
As played it seems fine but I have a feeling this is going to be close the top of your checking back range? I don't want to make assumptions on how you structure your checking back ranges but I would assume that you would have bet AK etc on the flop.
If it is the case that this is the top of your range in this spot then obviously you can be exploited if you're folding this which leans me towards a sigh call.
Oct. 22, 2016 | 10:18 a.m.
Not 100% certain on this - maybe some other people can back me up/correct me but my interpretation of it is to do with the frequency we bet on different board textures which relates to how we should size our bets.
For example in the first example it's a very dry board where villain won't have loads of hands they can continue with. This means we are more incentivised to bluff as we expect to get folds more often. This in turn leads us to be smaller with a wider range because we get better value on our bluffs and we can also bet wider for value.
On the second board AdQdTh there are a lot of combos of pairs, draws, combo draws etc. that villain can continue with either with a call or a raise. This means we are less incentivised to bluff as we are not going to take down the pot as often. In this case as we will not be bluffing as much and not value betting as thinly we will be using a larger sizing for both our bluffs and our value hands.
A general rule I believe (though general rules are often dangerous in poker if you can't adapt them sometimes) is the wider your betting range is, the smaller your bet size should be.
An example of this can be found in Julian Kopanskiy's video on 'C-betting as Button PFR vs Big Blind' he talks about betting on dry boards and how villain should react to our strategy - where we have a very dry board (in this case 772r flop) that we should be cbetting 100% of our range for a 1/3 pot size bet.
Hope this helps, if I've not explained anything clearly let me know :)
Oct. 22, 2016 | 10:09 a.m.
Ok been a week since my last update and I've made a few changes which I feel have improved my game. As well as focusing on my weakest areas when I study rather than mindlessly watching videos and pretending it's all going in I've lowered my number of tables from 6 to 4. After one session I felt I was clicking buttons far too often and not really thinking through my decisions.
I've also recently purchased StarsHelper and discovered a leak I didn't know I had. Having the stack sizes and bet amounts changed to BB rather than $ amount has made it a lot easier for me to think through decisions and not be affected by the dollar amount. When I was playing before I was always at least relatively conscious of how much I was up or down in a session which in turn affected my decisions in certain spots but having it changed to BB for some reason has made it harder to follow, or at least not make me care as much. Either way it's been a big help and the last 5K hands have been very good.
Despite what the orange line looks like I have been running well generally, apart from a few all ins which haven't gone my way. I think with my updates I'll be posting graphs every 5K hands. After 25K hands I'll post a collection of all my stats so if anyone spots any major leaks they can be my best friend forever!
GL at the tables!
Oct. 21, 2016 | 4:25 p.m.
I think you have an interesting point when it comes to check raising the turn.
OP I would guess the reason you check/called the turn was because you think he has a fair amount of bluffs in his range that you want to keep in? If so then he'll still have those bluffs by the river which should make you more inclined to call.
If you think he doesn't have that many bluffs in his range and when he bets the turn he's mainly doing so with Tx then I like a check/raise as you're getting more value - plus it makes it a lot easier (if not less painful) to fold river once you've narrowed down his range.
Oct. 21, 2016 | 10:07 a.m.
Interesting, I've seen a couple of people say the same thing in videos recently about defending those weaker suited hands rather than the stronger offsuit hands. Maybe I should try defending those more often.
Oct. 20, 2016 | 7:15 p.m.
You're right that people are defending tight to a 3bet after raising UTG but take into consideration that we are also going to be opening much tighter UTG. Compare that to the button, if we were raising around 50% then only continuing AQ+, 88+ then yes BB has a very profitable 3bet but raising 15% UTG and continuing with AQ+, 88+ (around 5.5%) then we're not folding anywhere near as much.
Oct. 20, 2016 | 7:11 p.m.
I agree with Adam, bet flop and bet turn for sure. Still worse hands he can call with but the river is a little awkward bringing in a couple of two pair.
Bet/folding seems fine but we're targeting a very narrow range for value IMO so I would probably end up x/f assuming he would check back hands like KJ, JT and bet all stronger hands.
Oct. 20, 2016 | 6:54 p.m.
I like the idea in theory but the problem with this is to look like a fish in the stats you have to do fishy things which are obviously -EV and I don't think the benefits of looking bad outweigh this.
Also people can change their opinions of you and the stats will change over time. It's all well and good playing 50/4 over 100 hands or so but when you start playing well again those stats will change to reflect this.
Best case scenario you play fishy for a while against someone who doesn't have a HUD, never changes his opinions on people and has promised to play 10K hands minimum against you.
Oct. 20, 2016 | 6:48 p.m.
Whoops, looking back I've been thinking about it all wrong.
I put so much effort into what my range looks like I didn't even consider what he would be betting three times on this board after 3betting pre.
Especially with the bigger sizing on the river I think he becomes fairly polarized between strong Ax and air. Even then do people just barrel off air in this spot where a lot of people are going to find it hard to fold trips? Probably not.
Call with strong Ax and FHs. I would delete the post but it took me a while to type and seems like a waste. Maybe it can start theoretical discussions of similar spots where it isn't so obvious?
Oct. 20, 2016 | 6:22 p.m.
BN: $28.47 (Hero)
Rake is $0.84
Oct. 20, 2016 | 6:12 p.m.
Yeah that's what I was thinking, good to see we're on the same page! Turning those kind of one pair hands into bluff would be really cool but like you say it's hard to see him betting flop and turn with those unless that was his plan from the start which seems unlikely.
Whoops, I did didn't I? That was silly!