+1 for a river call, villain's small river sizing means that we can be dominating value at some frequency (KJs, AQ) - enough to make this a call for me.
April 24, 2017 | 12:05 a.m.
--- NOTE ---
For those running the 'player won or lost 1.5-4bb' and are playing a stake where the SB is not exactly half of the BB then you will need to change your filter to adjust for the smaller SB size. For example I play a decent amount of NL25z on Stars and the SB is 10c, not exactly half of the BB like it is at NL10 or NL50. Once I changed the filter to 1.4 to reflect the smaller SB it changed my graphs dramatically as you will see below.
April 23, 2017 | 9:57 p.m.
@BubbleNedRum + Francis:
I don't mean to throw a spanner in the works after all that analysis but the action preflop is that the SB limped and hero raised 4x, then triple barrelled post flop. There was no 3bet.
April 22, 2017 | 1:56 p.m.
Good idea, I'll use that in the future.
The past couple of sessions I've been trying to widen my range after coming to the same conclusion that I've been playing too tight.
When I put more volume in I'll repost.
April 22, 2017 | 1:39 p.m.
Ok here are the positional stats for the month so far - not great reading for me!
So my SB winrate is pretty awful, something I've never had a problem with in the past so could be running bad but could also be forcing aggression too much too.
BB's not that awful, not sure what a great player's winrate is from BB but I think this is at least a decent start.
EP is bad, CO is awful and BTN could be improved.
I 3bet too infrequently from the BB, this is something I've been aware of for a while but struggling to improve. SB 3bet could improve as well but the range that I've constructed for this isn't that low so maybe again this is a case of not getting the hands to play from those positions? I mean it is only 2.7K hands for each position.
I'm surprised how tight my stats seem to be when I know my ranges that I've constructed are wider than that. Could be something to do with the sample size again.
Also aggression from the BB is something that's very low - something else I've been aware of and trying to work on. Just noticed river call efficiency from the SB is suuuper low. Could be contributing to my declining win rate but again with the sample I have how reliable are the river stats gonna be?
April 22, 2017 | 3:43 a.m.
Hey guys, ran bad at NL25 and spewed off a couple of stacks so back down to NL16 again. Also time to post a weekly graph!
I think in BB I'm just about even but lost more at NL25 than I won at NL16 so slightly losing for the week but EV line is negative so wouldn't have been a great week either way. Bit disappointing that the first shot back went so poorly, first session I ran good to break even then the next two I lost 2 or 3 big all ins and lost around 5 buyins those two sessions.
Trying to put myself in different spots after going through the graph analysis that Nick Howard showed on his latest stream, I found I'm losing in spots where I really shouldn't be so trying to change up my play and fix those issues. Still having issues in those river spots where I should fold. Had one tonight in the session just before I started writing this where I overbet in a spot that wasn't that great to begin with then called a raise which was just horrible. I still try and justify by saying 'yeah but what if they do it with worse' which is a fucking stupid thing to think as that's pretty much never happening.
Anyway back on the NL16 grind for now, gonna give myself a bigger shot next time so get the roll for 6 buyins instead of 4. Just need to git gud and win some monies!
April 22, 2017 | 12:35 a.m.
Everyone's posting graphs so I thought I'd join!
First here's my CC in BB vs single raiser.
Now here's my graphs for the year filtered by won/loss BB size. Any help/advice would be appreciated!
0-1.5 just going straight down. This seems to be the same story for a lot of people. I probably under defend my BB though. Would be interesting to see someone post a positive one of these if they have one.
1.5-4 Similarly going straight down apart from the past couple of hundred hands where I've basically broken even. This is obviously very bad. I must be raise/folding too much as well as call/folding too much. Probably mostly coming from the BB as I don't CC very much at all from anywhere else.
4-8 Going up a lot with positive blue and red lines, first good graph so far!
8-20 Was basically breaking even/slightly winning until the past 600 hands where I've taken a nosedive. Probably double barrelling and giving up river too much? It's only the redline going down so maybe calling flop+turn and folding river is impacting this as well.
20-40 Been slightly winning/breaking even. On the rise at the moment but one to keep an eye on for sure.
40-100 Keeps going up, running good but sometimes that happens!
100+ Definitely the swingiest graph for everyone, mine's currently losing and maybe that has something to do with what I posted in my blog (not being able to fold rivers when I should). Maybe if I plug this leak it won't be as losing but I imagine this one is going to be whether or not you'll be the one coolering or being coolered.
April 21, 2017 | 2:21 p.m.
Yeah that's a great point. Basically what I've been doing is going through those hands where I make a bad call on the river and taking the time to go through them fully, breaking down exactly why I shouldn't call. When I'm in a session I try to be hyper aware of when I'm in this mindset of 'I know I should fold but I don't want to' and try and catch myself before I make that mistake. I've managed to reduce those calls for now and managed to make a pretty easy fold in a spot where I may have talked myself into a call before.
I don't think I'm worried about being exploited it's more that I've kind of decided at some point in the hand that I was going to win. Holy shit that literally just came to me as I was typing it. When I have one of these hands I feel like I am going to win it 100% before the hand is even over. Obviously that is ridiculous but that explains why I still make those calls despite the evidence that's been put in front of me. Wow this is a huge mental game leak. Definitely something I need to look out for when I play and stop myself thinking like this.
Yeah it's hard to come up with something that could measure how well you're playing per se. I would assume most of these challenges are hand number + winrate, e.g 100K hand taget in x days, highest winrate wins. Obviously challenges like that are subject to variance but I'm sure we can think of something if we get enough minds behind it.
April 20, 2017 | 2:10 p.m.
As someone who is losing in 1.5-4, 5-10 and 10-20 I would be interested to know too (only did a filter for 20+ as Nick did in his stream and I'm winning in those).
I'm guessing I'm check folding flop too often (1.5-4), not double/triple barrelling enough also (5-10 + 10-20)? I'm pretty certain my overall aggression is too low so that if those are the reasons I'm losing in those filters it would explain the correlation.
April 20, 2017 | 2:21 a.m.
Quick update - I will be returning to NL25 for now after a bit of rungood at NL16 has brought my bankroll back up to my set number of buyins. A loss of 4 buyins means I will move back down again.
Not the prettiest graph in the world I must admit but my main worry is that green line and it's staying positive for now. My mindset when it comes to moving up stakes at this level is to let it be determined by my bankroll. If I spend time proving that I can crush a stake over 100K hands when I've been rolled for the stake higher than that during that time it seems almost wasteful. Plus playing better players means I will improve faster though at the micros I don't think the difference is that huge - all the more reason to move up when you can!
Some people may disagree with that approach but it's one I'm sticking to until I'm either proven wrong or I'm beaten down enough at a certain stake to realise that I need to tough it out there for a while.
April 20, 2017 | 12:55 a.m.
That's some great advice, I've already taken some of it on of my own accord and can say for sure that it helps me focus more in game. Mainly closing all internet tabs (apart from the one I use for music), going to the bathroom before a session and not being on my phone during a session.
I need to get a proper warm up routine going but as with everything I procrastinate like a motherfucker so will probably be a while before I get one properly up and running. One thing I recommend for people like me who don't like to play in silence is to listen to classical music. It's really relaxing (for me) and is way better than 'regular' music as there's no lyrics in most of them to distract you.
I think my main problem is that I'm too curious or scared of being bluffed - either/or. I play solid for quite a while in the session and at one point when I get a decent hand in a spot where I know I should be folding I rarely seem to make that fold. It's for sure a form of entitlement tilt and it's something I'm working on every session.
What kind of challenge do you have in mind? I need something where I can improve my volume because I seem to be the worst for that from what I can see!
April 20, 2017 | 12:48 a.m.
Yeah you're 100% right, definitely I leak I found myself having and after I typed it I thought about it a lot more and realised that I must be overestimating how good I am. The best way to improve is to be humble and to realise there's always something you can work on :)
April 15, 2017 | 9:06 p.m.
OK so here is my graph for the 2nd week of April (7th-14th)
As you can see it wasn't pretty. Volume is super low as well, mainly because after that session where I donked off a few buyins I stopped myself playing. I ignored anything to do with poker for 2-3 days just to clear my head. I feel like a lot of my issues are mental whether that be entitlement tilt or just being too curious when I know I should fold.
One thing that I've always found hard is accepting losing pots. I've always been super competitive growing up and hated losing, as most people do, which seems to make it hard for me to be ok losing hands even though there's nothing I could do. I try and find a fault in how I played it because hey, if I had played it correctly I would have won the pot right? I'm definitely better at this than I used to be but I can still feel it happening. Usually in spots on the river where I should fold but I find that one part of his range or even just 1 hand I can beat and I call 'just in case'.
I've actually written above my PC screens 'It's OK to fold' but it doesn't seem to be helping. I played my first session at NL16 today which went well, won a couple of buyins but there were a couple of those river spots where I cost myself money. Every time I make the right fold is a small victory, I suppose I need to focus on winning the war rather than lingering on lost battles.
April 15, 2017 | 6:02 a.m.
Blog is off to a bad start! Played a session and lost about 5 1/2 buyins. Two hands where I got unlucky tilted me off and lost a couple more buyins from there. Bankroll is now under $1K so will drop down to NL16 until it's back over.
Not the start I wanted.
April 12, 2017 | 1:05 a.m.
Those of you with long memories might remember that I started a blog around 7/8 months ago trying to get from NL10 to NL100 by the end of the year. The blog kind of tailed off after a few weeks, mirroring my commitment to getting better.
I am a lazy person.
It sucks because I don't want to be but I'm too lazy to do anything about it.
I've been thinking about this a lot recently and I've decided it's time to get off my arse and actually put some effort into going out and getting the things that I want rather than sitting around and hoping that they will magically come to me. The two main areas of improvement that I'm focusing on at the moment are my poker game and my weight loss. I'm currently a losing/breakeven player at NL25 (probably more losing than breakeven) and I'm overweight by quite a way for my height.
I will post two graphs below, one for my whole NL25z results and the graph that inspired me to start holding myself accountable for what I want which is my current graph for this month (losing around 10 buyins!)
The thing is that I knew before I checked my results that I would be losing; I've been in some cooler/bad beat spots relatively often, but I didn't think I would be losing by this much. This month I feel like I have been playing well for the most part and that the strategy I have is the best I've ever gotten it to but I check my results and I'm getting pounded.
I still feel confident and I still feel like I'm one of the better regs at my stake (I'm sure every reg feels like this though so it probably doesn't count for much) so my plan is to grind out volume while trying to play as good as I can. That's all any of us can do right?
My weight is something that's gotten out of hand over the past couple of years and needs to be reined back in. My starting weight is 115kg (18st 1lb) and my height is around 6ft. Not sure what weight I want to get down to yet but I want to get to a point where I'm feeling healthier and looking better, I'll be posting these goals along with my poker goals.
I'll be posting goals for each week and month below starting April 14th, I'll post weekly/monthly graphs as well cause everyone likes to look at graphs. I'll probably post every now and again in between those with thoughts on how I'm playing, ranting if I'm tilting and bitching and moaning if I'm running bad! :D
GL at the tables
April 12, 2017 | 12:05 a.m.
Ah ok, so you're saying that if we stab when checked to every time we float the flop then we'll be overbluffing? That's fair enough and like you say I imagine we'll be choosing the bluffs with the most equity to bet with first then work back from there.
Didn't notice that he was a tight player, that's my bad. So an exploit you would have made in this spot if you called turn would be to overfold rivers as we don't expect the villain to be bluffing that often?
Hmm ok, I need to look at my opening range as this would be in my standard opening range. Probably most of the players at my stakes aren't being aggressive enough from the blinds so it's probably not costing me that much but definitely something I need to be aware of.
Thanks for your response :)
April 10, 2017 | 11:31 p.m.
Hey John, great video!
Quick question - at 12:00 on the bottom right you say with QTo you would like to continue on this card and gave some good reasons for doing so. I am a bit inexperienced with choosing the hands to double barrel with pretty much air so what made you want to choose this hand and what sizing would you go for on the turn? I would have thought that the sizing wouldn't be as big on dynamic turn cards so I'm guessing around 1/2 pot? Or would even 1/3 pot generate the same fold equity?
Also assuming we bet the turn in this spot and we're called, are we still value betting the river on the same runout? I'm assuming we would to get value from his 9x and his middling pocket pairs.
April 8, 2017 | 2:36 p.m.
Agreed, against a reg this is a lot more scary but whales get here with AT, T7s and random stuff that you're beating. Sure we're going to lose some of the time but not often enough imo. I'm calling river for the same reason.
April 8, 2017 | 12:04 p.m.
It doesn't have to be a bluff shove, we have enough equity to call if they're shoving QQ+ and AK, I think even if they're just shoving QQ+ then we're just about ok but haven't done the math for a while and would depend on your 4bet sizing.
April 8, 2017 | noon
I think a call or a 4bet/call are more profitable here than a fold, I think JJ is just too strong to fold to this action. Would JJ be the top of your folding range in this spot?
As played I think you could conceivably put in a small bet here but against thinking players it may look like what it is and you may get bluffed off your hand so if I were to bet it would probably be around 1/2 pot. Checking back is ok as well I think.
When he overbet shoves the river it's a weird spot because given the way the action's gone I would agree with Resolve that your hands looks like what it is, a pair like 99 or JJ, maybe QQ. Villain could either be trying to put max pressure on that range by shoving or he might have a hand like AA/KK that assumes they're always good so they're going for max value.
I think I would probably call but I wouldn't love it, the T isn't a great card for him to barrel most of his bluffs imo so there are some bluffs that get to the river this way.
April 8, 2017 | 11:58 a.m.
Definitely a weird spot but I can't see myself folding either. Hearts miss which villain will almost always have some combos of if they're using a relatively balanced x/r range in this spot.
I agree with betting bigger on the flop and maybe even checking back with some frequency. I wouldn't discount QTs entirely as there are some people who will call that preflop which we are now beating.
I'm high on my range BUT I don't see him bluffing his AhJh.
If you don't think he's ever bluffing then I think you're right that it's a fold but it's a bit of an assumption. We need to work out which is more assumptive given the data we have - either villain doesn't bluff his missed flush draws or villain does bluff his missed flush draws.
Having a look at his high WSD and low WWSF I would make an assumption that villain is more passive than usual, meaning he's less likely to bluff flush draws, meaning you're probably right if you want to fold.
April 8, 2017 | 11:51 a.m.
Hey Stelios, thanks for the video!
I noticed there was a bit of a discrepancy between the fold vs river cbet stats from the main Reports page and the Opponents page.
At 29:05 we saw that the river cbet success vs 1 is 50.7% however at 32:32 on the Opponents page we see the fold to river cbet stat as 25.5%. What do you think the reason is for this?
April 8, 2017 | 2:55 a.m.
Hey Zeljko, thanks for the video!
One quick thing, the video seemed to be stopping quite a lot but the audio kept going so we could hear you describe something that we couldn't see. Not sure what was going on but could be dodgy recording software.
Table 2 17:30 ATo*
Why do you think the villain overbets the turn here? I was thinking about it but couldn't quite understand it. I always thought that the best time to overbet turns is when your opponent has a capped range but are you really that capped here? Does he just expect you to raise most of your 5x on the flop, or is it more that you wouldn't have enough 5x to optimally call down turns and rivers and he expects you to fold most of your Ax?
Table 3 20:30 AKo*
I thought this was an interesting spot where I was quite confused how it played out. What made you consider cbetting this combo in this spot? In the video you said it would be better to have a club for obvious reasons and that you wouldn't cbet all AK combos so why this one? It's a spot I find myself in and I usually decide to check without a club and usually call 1 street.
On the turn you bet again and you say that nothing has changed since the flop board texture wise and for me this is a reason to check. For me betting this turn would be a bluff and if I can't get hands to fold on the turn that have called the flop then for me it seems like a bad bet. However the way the hand played out I understand the explanation for calling the river but does this mean that the turn bet was a thin value bet?
Table 1 26:50 T8o*
Here after you raised BTN v BB you decide to bet 1/2 pot on a very dry board K54r where as in other spots you have been betting 1/3. I would have thought this is a good spot to be betting smaller as I don't see villain's continuing range changing that much if you bet smaller which is surely good when we have this hand. Also you said that you wouldn't barrel on the 9d, are there any cards you're barrelling in this spot or is this a hand you bet once and give up?
April 7, 2017 | 6:48 p.m.
Hey Era7er, thanks for the vid!
First of all +1 for using numbers or saying 'top left' or 'top right' as we can't see your cursor!
13:40 Q9s Top Right*
You decide to check back Q9s after floating the flop on a 6s4s4c - 8s board. Does this mean you're only continuing (bluffing or calling) on turns that you improve? I thought part of the reason we would float this hand apart from the two overs and a flush draw that we have is that we can bluff on turns where villain checks. Even more so when the villain uses a 1/3 sizing on the flop indicating that he's going to be betting very frequently and therefore will be checking turn quite often too.
15:30 QJo Bottom Right*
I thought this was quite a tight turn fold. My thinking was that villain could have quite a few hands that had some weak backdoor draw on the flop that didn't want to bet 3way that has picked up equity. For example hands like T9, other straight draws and weak club hands. You also mention that you're blocking KQ/QT but how important is that really in this spot and was that enough to influence your fold?
Finally you chose not to open 87o from the button when folded to you. I think this is basically the bottom of my range but I was wondering if it was a standard fold for you or did the players behind influence your decision?
April 6, 2017 | 3:41 a.m.
I don't know if he knows we will flat strong Ax in this spot.
I think if villain has any kind of understanding of preflop ranges then I think he will. I don't think it's that much of a leap to assume that but you know the average player at NL5 better than I do so I suppose you're in a better place to judge.
I think I would either 3bet or fold pre depending on whether or not I have stats on villain on how they react to 3bets.
April 5, 2017 | 1:40 a.m.
Wow that's a lot of text for a J4o BB defend :D
I think you touch on a very important thing right at the end where you say that people are over folding to shoves and you can use your stack to pressure people and gain chips this way. If this is the case then I would much rather fold this spot despite the great price. Even if this wasn't the case I think this is too weak to defend but I'm not an MTT player and I do know that the general trend it to defend your BB suuuper wide now.
Also try not to listen too much to what people say in home games, they're often a breeding ground for bad advice and misguided logic!
April 4, 2017 | 7:09 p.m.
I think the way we need to look at this spot is; does calling give us a higher EV than -20bb (what we would lose if we fold to the 4bet.
So vs a worst case scenario of only AA we have 8% equity so lets plug this in to the EV equation:
(Probability of winning: 0.068)x(Profit of winning: 32.24) + (Probability of losing: 0.932)x(Profit of losing-12.80) = -$10 so obviously in this case a fold is better.
If we plug in the same numbers for AK vs AA,KK then we get -$5 so this is getting closer but still not great.
If we do the same thing for AK v AA,KK,QQ then it's a plus EV call by $1.
I think giving villain a range of QQ+ is reasonable enough that we can call here every time.
--- Note ---
I plugged the numbers into this equity calculator and I'm assuming it rounded the numbers up a bit so if you do the math by hand and it comes out different this might be why.
Also it's been a while since I've done this kind of math so if anyone spots a mistake let me know and I will change it ASAP! :)
April 4, 2017 | 6:58 p.m.
Turn is an interesting spot after they x/r flop then bet this small on the turn. To me this looks like "thin" value as you would expect villain to polarize when they have the bare As or a flush. So this could be hands like QT or 66 or maybe a very low flush like 43s/54s. Either way you don't beat any value that I can think of and I don't think this sizing is used as enough as a bluff to call either.