JukeBox

go use propokertools graph function, see how often you flop >50% equity on flop, it'l help you figure this out ;).

ive joined , hope we get some more takers.

well if you need ~30% equity to break even on flop shove, you have to ask how confident you are in your reads. Its not going to be a big mistake , your 6 has some block potential and you have the backdoor nut flush draw, which counts for something (probably why you have >20% here).

If we graph hand versus range, you have over 50% equity on ~66% of flops.

Equity vs T9* flop looks fine here too (~56%):

Equity on flop vs T9*

would like to hear you reasoning for the river betsize, doesn't make too much sense to me.

I mean if you are putting him on lots of two pair or set combos, he will fold a lot of these to that sizing if he gives you any credit at all, plus it makes your semibluffs as played more expensive.

That said, I think playing for fold equity is a mistake, and I think either check calling or betting 55-60% pot would be better, depending on what comes on river

what type of hands are you targeting with the turn donk?

I think there is some merit to leading flop as the board is disconnected and we charge people for the opportunity to draw. not something I would do readless though, we need to have an idea of the ranges they play and what their tendencies are for when they haven't hit hard ( how do they play overcards+flush draw?/ top pair + fd?)

turn card is pretty awful for us to donk on. Hands that reraise us are never far behind us or crush us. The bet doesn't achieve much (are you trying to induce folds? what's going to fold here that calls flop? )

river: both flushes miss, we now have a solid two pair hand which I would classify as a good bluff catcher, since it beats his 6xx9 type hands.

The price is $1.20 to win a pot of $3.70 which is ~ 3:1 , so we only need to win 25% of the time to break even here!

Does villain bluff river with his missed draws here sometimes? I would think so
Looking back at our thoughs on the flop, the vast majority of his range isn't strong (he'd bet his sets, right?) so its probably two pairs, pairs + draws , that sort of thing.

so how does KK33 look now, when you compare that to what he is likely to have?

I'd be calling here every time unless I had reasons to do otherwise.

works a treat, nice implementation.

thanks guys, its the small usability and accesibility features that make these services a pleasure to use, and i'm sure your userbase will notice it.

wellplayed on getting it implemented so quickly. I'l check it out next time I can renew.

gg

sounds like you aren't defending your equity in the pot, half potting an unbalanced range against someone who wants to draw is a bad idea imo. Think about pot odds and how many outs villain could have to improve, and you should be able to make some decent assumptions.

my understanding of betsizing is that we want to size up when our range is polarised, and down when our range is focused. we therefore get max fold equity and value from the former, and a good price/pot control for the latter. Villain dependent though.

I like half potting turns, but its an adjustment to the fact that it pressures ranges that are too polarised towards air or nuts ( and their actions on turn thenreveal their hand strength accordingly),

Always have an aim for your betsizes. Avoid making your holdings obvious though, and focus on board texture, what you represent, and villains possible range, and weighting for each hand type. Like if the most common hand he has on many turns is a weak pair + draw, and you know villain is a recreational weak tight player, you can relentlessly 1/2 pot turn and watch him fold with good odds to continue. You might however be doing the same thing and 1/2 potting turn into 2 people where the average hand on the flop is a pair, or a draw or a combination of the two, and the range of hands that will reraise your turn bet is very narrow. suddenly you are getting 4/1 when called, eg betting $5 into a pot of 10 and two callers = 5 into 20 , 20/5 = 4..

so assuming they don't fold (which is fine), you can be in a great spot with a wide range of two pairs/ overpairs and nut flush draws.

I like the exploit what I believe is my image in villain's eyes on river here then, so if the flush draw wihffed and I'm expecting villain to hold something like top pair top kick, i'l maybe pot or 1.2x pot river sometimes, repping a busted flush draw or a backdoor that hit river. People hate folding, and hate giving credit. I wouldn't worry about balance against non regs.

oh look, I wrote an essay again ;_;

thanks I appreciate it Steve!

would you be willing to export the hud and share it? I attempted to recreate it, but failed to find a lot of the stats for the smaller panels and the last lines of the main panel, sigh.

your turn cbet is kinda high, you should probably consider turn texture a bit more and how it affects each segment of villains range more, it'l make it easier to get away from the more marginal spots., your calling 4bets really frequently too, which is probably fine, but i'd probably play a more linear strat vs donks and a more polarised strat vs regs, it should work out better longterm.

PFR is on the narrow side, find more spots to steal in position, esp when your flop cbet success rate is high against the player type in the blinds.

I think low wraps can be folded multiway.

What I mean to say is you are probably too concerned with being exploited by folding these, when calling these is more likely to generate that very same result.

If you are in a situation where you can exclude parts of people ranges so that reverse implied odds isn't a concern, it becomes easy to play these, but as that risk goes up (say for example against an ABC player on btn that understands hand structures to some degree) these hands lose merit a lot multiway.

Think of it this way:

Will your hand generate less of a loss than just folding?
If you think its profitable, why is this the case?

To me my mindset would be:

-what is my RELATIVE position.
- if I raise, will I generate fold equity?
- what's the possibility villains will share outs with each other(great for us)
- what's the possibility villains will block my outs (awful for us)

My gut would be to fold the non nutty pairs before folding wraps since set over set is possible and disgusting for us, and we are more likely to have underset.

Whereas for straights, overstraights are unlikely, we may block it with our hand, and may get value from inside straights and dumb straights that are frequently overplayed by many opponents.

Villains Implied range (generalized):

AA**!72 or the worst of it I would think
AKKxss/ds
Decent runs+

Estimate frequency of each part of his range.

Exploit.

TL;DR

be more aggro. don't give people the option to check when it gives you hard decisions in 3bet pots, decide ahead of time what his flop reraises would mean.

I didn't notice any difference whatsoever, but I didn't play much at plo5.

plo25 on the other hand is a different ballgame!

Hey Jonna, playing plo10 zoom on stars too.

I see you at the tables often, and have observed ~140 with you in em. I'd love to discuss hands and the game with you if you are interested, send me a PM.

thanks!

your flop reasoning isn't enough if you ask me.

Donk bets are normally a good option when:
-you will get value from worse
or
-you will get better hands to fold

It also gives villain an option to reraise you.

I think you are losing a lot of value by not doing it here, since villain might get really aggro with Q9x,99x,KKx+,JTx&pair+backdoors.

It also lets you charge the draws in his range that will likely peel once but not do so on turn.

Your thought process should be more concerned with the ranges of your opponents and their tendencies, and also your image. Combinatorics is also an important concept you are going to need to learn about later when you want to add bluffs to your plans on rivers for example, but probably worth not bluffing at micros to begin with.

pretty disgusting read. thx for posting.

I'd certainly filter your flat calling range, probably lots of hands that flatting is causing losses for you, I'd say anything above a VP of 25 is unlikely to be profitable longterm unless you are a seasoned player, especially if your flatting in the wrong positions.

haha, i'l believe it when I see it :D

beta updates for trackers fixed the issue for hand tracking. at least for HEM2

only other changes I see is the fact that rebuys now get raked.

I expect more (bad) changes in the new year

Ive had the pleasure of playing vs chelovektula for a few hundred hands. To say hes a funny/unusual fish is an understatement. its amazing how many regs spaz out vs him.

PLO Ranger will give you an estimate, but i'm not sure how accurate it is, and right now its in beta, has tons of memory leaks ( uses 1.3gb ram for 4 tables) so i'd probably avoid it.

Just wanted to mention that HEM Cloud is available, which will likely work on mac. worth a look. Its a service currently free to HM2 owners.

@ontopic I'm currently playing PLO zoom micros too, i'l be keeping an eye out for your progress !

looking at the original post, is this group still active?

gl, i'l be looking out for your posts, fancy giving us an update? :P