Hand 1 I'm probably 4betting with QQ+ and AK suited and stacking off of Course.
Hand 2 is more of a call in this Scenario but it largely depends on the rivercard.
Say if the river blanks like a deuce of Clubs I'm definitely calling a small bet but I'm folding if urfine pots it or bets Close to pot.
Its possible that elgrecogr is trapping but after he checks turn and river It's less likely that he is trapping with say a set of 9s because hed be more inclined to valuebet it.
So whenever I feel that Urfine is valuebetting I think he is doing that with Jx so that eliminates the trap Combos elgrecogr could have.
And whenever I feel that Urfine is bluffing I think I'm more inclined to call that too because elgrecogr has to check/raise a lot there on the river for my call to be unprofitable.
However if the river brings in a straight Im much more inclined to fold vs Urfine because he is most likely drawing. But like I said Urfine can also have some mediumish or strongish toppair.
Also on that board be Kind of careful when the backdoorflush Comes because People dont like to bluff when there is 3 to a flush in this specific spot imo. Especially if elgrecogr bets on the flushmaking river you can just snapfold unless he makes it like super small like 1/3 pot I might call... but even that... folding is never a mistake vs elgrecogr based on the fact that he coldcalled a 3bet pre with a presumably tight range.
now urfine doesnt have the Backdoorflush (BDF) that often but if he bets big on it he has it (maybe light peel on the flop and then jhe just binked in)..so be careful in my experience when there are 3 to the flush People are more cautious with their TP Hands (they prefer to check/call instead of bet).
Jan. 18, 2017 | 11:35 p.m.
Your redline is falling down like a stone but also your blue line could probably go higher. I think you should definitely change your ways.
Check your BB fold to steal, fold to 3bet, your total 3bet, fold to cbet etc.
Basically it seems like your playing nitty AND your rarely getting paid because people know that you're nitty, but you're so nitty that you cooler everyone^^
Jan. 18, 2017 | 7:09 p.m.
@esso.g we Are only setmining when we're multiway. Whenever we're heads up we still try to find out how he plays his AQ AK JJ KQs and Try to bluffcatch against that.
The main tendency of players at micros is that they like to bet once as a bluff but I feel they fire the 2nd barrel they have it, not so much in a single raised pot, but in a squeezed pot They have it if they fire flop+turn.
However once we decide to fold QQ to big flop Cbets and call vs small he can adapt by betting Kinda big with his bluffs to generate a lot of foldequity and give up turn or he can decide to bet his whole range small.
If he bets small we have to call because we expect it's a high frequency bet possibly with his whole range. But now he can double barrel the turn (possibly small again) and get us to fold a lot.
Jan. 18, 2017 | 6:11 a.m.
21/16 villain is a fakin nit.
Only reraise pre with AK and QQ or better.
He is never ever calling river with AK, no point in betting river even if we're ahead 90% of the time. Also no point in Check/calling.
If he plays bet/x/bet line it's mooostly value.
If he wanted to bluff AK he'd bet turn.
He doesn't expect us to fold AJ or QQ to his bet check bet line when he has AK so why would he bluff? Of course if he knew we'd be folding so much here he'd be starting to bluff AK but at this point he certainly does not know that ;) ... me smart?
Jan. 17, 2017 | 9:44 p.m.
Imo it's super easy to play QQ vs such narrow ranges,
First of all I'm not expecting too much bullshit like A5s in SB range.
It's possible he has a range like AA KK QQ AK.
When there is a K or an A on the flop you're dead and can just fold to any bet basically,
When there is a Q on the board you can slowplay and let him bluff off/valuetown his stack.
When there is a Jack high flop I'm calling a small bet on the flop, folding to a big one.
When there is a Ten high flop or lower I definitely want to peel one but if he makes it too big I'm always folding because I don't believe that villain wants to invest so much if he whiffed with AK.
Jan. 17, 2017 | 8:48 p.m.
If CO shoves and Button and SB fold you call.
If CO shoves and SB calls you fold (SB is unlikely to stack off with AKo pre and you're not doing well against QQ+, AKs).
If CO folds and button shoves and SB folds you call.
If CO folds and button shoves and SB calls you fold.
If CO calls and Button shoves and SB calls you call (high Chance SB is stacking off with AKo here because of all the dead money).
Jan. 17, 2017 | 8:35 p.m.
Hand 1 is too marginal at this stake because people 3bet tight range SB vs CO so I'm folding pre (calling is no option pre. you'll Ben playing in the sandwich 3 way in a 3bet pot).
Hand 2 definitely checking and almost always folding on the river if elgrecogr bets. Urfines range is wider and your often ahead against him so when the turn goes check/bet, you can call Urfine but u still have elgrecogr behind you (who often has JJ or 99) so even though you are ahead against Urfines range you can't really call a bet because elgrecogr could be trapping on the river,
Hand 3 Is a fold. There are a ton of flushes in this guys range and we shouldn't expect him to turn toppair into a bluff. Also he may have 34s which is a straight.
Jan. 17, 2017 | 4:41 p.m.
I don't know either but I took pokersnowies defending ranges as a baseline and I think Kalupso wrote that snowie is making rake considerations.
Now 63s may be too thin of a call but I can imagine that people defend 75s 54s 64s and if they valuebets those OTR it's probably fine to call the river as played.
But one thing in the hand which we haven't touched yet is why you decided to checkback turn. You have a straightflushdraw, I'm always betting that on this turn to put pressure on his toppairs.
Jan. 17, 2017 | 7:37 a.m.
No big sample but I think since villain is 20/18 he isn't squeezing lighter than JJ+,AQo+,AQs+ so there is absolutely no reason to 4bet QQ here.
Even if we can profitably 4bet it's still likely that calling is more profitable.
Jan. 17, 2017 | 7:12 a.m.
I did some rough calculations in this spot.
First of villain can't be that good because he bet so small OTR. He should be overbetting or at least potting because you capped your range pretty hard after you checkback turn and bigger betsizes allow villain to bluff more combos in theory.
Therefore he is either underbluffing or overbluffing here because he clearly can't be playing optimally.
There are like 30-40 combos that beat you and he can turn T7s, JT, QJ into a bluff so in theory he has to be overbluffing here for us to profitably call HOWEVER he might valuebets lower flushes.
So it's crucial to know how many lower flushes he has here. If he defends 63s pre for example I'm definitely calling this river because there is a good chance that he bets a lower flush on this river and there gotta be some in his range plus the fact that people will bluff T7s and JT at a somewhat decent frequency.
If people at NL50 don't defend wide enough I would fold if they don't overbluff on the river.
Jan. 17, 2017 | 6:56 a.m.
It's not nitty to fold to this riverbet imho.
So first of all we just have a bluffcatcher here because I don't think that he is valuebetting a 9x here. And I don't think people turn a 9x into a bluff all that often.
You have bad blockers to his bluffs (JT, T7s), he can have a decent amount of boats because he has a lot of 8x and 3x in his range after he calls OTF.
Also he can have a lot of better flushes.
Jan. 17, 2017 | 6:37 a.m.
Timing is also very important. Take some time before you make the flop cbet to make it seem like you're agonizing about your decision. If you bet really fast people do read that as confident.
The flop timing is not that important but this one is: Don't check the Turn too fast, try to take maybe 2-3 seconds, if you snapcheck the Turn people may get a bit worried and check back. And if he decides to bet the Turn DONT SNAPCHECKRAISE and never click it back. Think some time (maybe tank) and the new just shove it. The pot will be often big enough that you can't check/raise/fold most of your hands anyway. If you applied the right timings and chose the right boards I would appreciated if you can post some hands to show evidence that this shit works if used properly.
Jan. 17, 2017 | 5 a.m.
I'm having a lot of success with check/raising overpairs on the Turn in 3b pots. Just wanted to throw that out there.
Maybe some of you guys want to test this strategy and see how it works for you.
So I guess it works because people stab literally always when you cbet and then check the Turn.
The classical saying "I put u on AK" comes to mind.
People also get into the habit of wanting to protect their overpairs. It's not bad to protect your overpairs but when you see that I check/raise my strong overpairs you should be capable of making that tough laydown because I literally stopped bluffing in these spots (I get called way too much).
But overpairs are only a medium sized part of peoples ranges on say lowcardboards 223 for example. People don't love to float 223 but they will still call AQ AJ which are hands they will regularly check facing a flop cb and a Turncheck but they may bet it as well and with check/raise Turn I often win more money than if I had bet.
Now I remember when I played NL25 people were more cautious when they saw me checking the Turn. I think that this checkraisinf-strategy is only effective if used sparingly. What's your opinion of it (maybe at higher stakes)? Does it work at 10NL?
Did I just explore the biggest leak NL5 players have?
I hope that not many micro players read this or else they may adapt :/ ...wow I'm really not sure if I should be posting this but I guess that most players at RIO play higher so I can tell that strat and maybe help 1 or 2 micro players out.
Jan. 17, 2017 | 4:53 a.m.
I really hope that you will succeed with your site and I'd like to share an idea how we can create a nice system that is good for the longterm growth of poker.
The most important factor is the recreational player!
Now I made a list of what recreational Players like:
-promos that require low volume
-observing nosebleed cash games
I generally think that people want to observe highstakes and bringing back highstakes poker would create a big boom. So I think getting recs into highstakes games would be a high priority.
Now the current Problem ins highstakes is that the fish is getting destroyed by 5 Regs. I think to even out the playing field a little you need to give highroller recs a lot of benefits.
-100% rakeback When they Play 5/10 or higher
-Special abilities for recreational players:
For example when a rec wins a hand you give him the button for the next hand. He is still going to be minus Ev in the games but he will experience a lot of upswings :)!
Then I'm thinking of special abilities that are really sick.....like extremely sick...you can only find them in sickland haha.
Now imagine that there is a rec who lost 50k on your site. Maybe he had enough and wants to quit poker. Give him a special ability that lets him win 5k back.
Im thinking of something like "Use this special ability during a hand to immediately win the pot (up to xxxx$)". Recs are going to love things like that.
So for example the pot is 5000$. Rec uses his super power "win the pot". He just wins the pot and every other player gets back what he invested in the hand. Of course this would be extremely minus Ev SHORTTERM but things like that would really spice up things in highstakes :)
So basically give the recs some monopoly-like abilities that give them the opportunity to win ----> enhances the action ---> big games are running ---> recs are going to lose their money slower ---> people are seeing that big games are running ---> railbirds ----> good publicity ----> interest is growing ----> more depositors
Jan. 16, 2017 | 2:38 a.m.
I want to be triple barreling AK about 15% of the time because that is my estimated probability that villain is a fish.
Also I never want to be forced to bluffcatch river with something worse than TP.
When it comes to TPs we want to be mixing KQs imo. I think I like to check/call KQdd and KQss and bet KQhh because there is a higher chance KQhh gets outdrawn.
I think if he bets flop and turn I'm still getting there with 4 or 3 combos OTR that need to be protected so therefore I need to check AK 40-50% OTF.
Now to reach 15% bet/bet/bet frequency with AK we need to Check I think about 35% On the turn after we bet flop and he called.
Since we will rarely get to the river with AK playing like that it's easy to make his AK indifferent to calling a triple barrel.
A nice hand to triple is A4s then if turn gave Us the FD because we block AA,AK,44 which also gives him a relatively higher amount of KQs OTR (which should be folded)
Jan. 16, 2017 | 12:54 a.m.
I just realized that this spot is not that easy to solve because we can't really valuebets AK OTR after we Bet/bet so I'm leaning towards a strategy that is making his AK indifferent to calling.
Since the amount of AK we have does have an impact on his Ev of calling we should probably check AK on the turn too at a somewhat decent frequency. Then our range is gonna be more polarized on the riv and it's easy to calculate how much we can bluff hehe :))..
Also it's not like checking turn with AK is a bad line in a vacuum.
AK is just a 2 street Hand in this situation!!
Jan. 16, 2017 | 12:27 a.m.
I don't know how wide you call Preflop nor do I know how often you trap this flop but I just tried to simplify your flop play. Basically I assumed that you would call some suited Ax pre, trap 2 combos of 44 and 77 (1 combo each), check/raise the rest.
So first of all the check/raise range should be balanced but since you can have about 4 combos of valuebets I see no problem in bluffing a lot on the flop.
I think I really prefer to check/raise suited Ax OTF but having JhTh and Th9h and QhJh is also nice to have in the c/r range to spice it up a bit on future streets.
But the main play with QhJh is definitively to call because blockers are making his range more AK heavy (we block KQ KJ) and this really reduces our foldequity.
On the other hand Ax suited is blocking a nice portion of his AK combos, our Ace might be life, we draw to the nuts and we can generate more FE on future streets because he Has more (relative) KQ And KJ in his range after he calls our c/r.
Also we can stack off after we Check/raise w/ Ax suited and we are also dominating some of his weaker draws.
Now when it comes to JhTh I think a check/raise should be used sparingly. We are not expecting many shoves after we check/raise but It would really suck if we get jammed on with the JhTh because we don't really want to call it off but we also don't want to fold.
Main play is definitely to call w/JhTh but I think check/raising about 30% is nice OTF..
now on the turn it's interesting ... very interesting.
I think since it's NL50 villains sizing indicates that he is not going to fold to a raise because of the high amount of FDs you can have here. He probably thinks that he induced and he could potentially 3bet over your check/raise.
He may also not give you enough credit for slowplaying 44 and 77 OTF.
All thing being said I still like to check/raise QhJh OTT because I have soooooooo much equity and no SD value.
But JhTh should be check/called moooooost of the time imo. First of all it would suck so hard to get jammed on after you check/raise and second of all we picked up some SD value against his Heartsdraws that he can have (I wouldn't discount them at all).
Also gives us the option to lead some J or T rivers which is pretty sexy.
For check/raise turn we simply pick some suited Ax and QhJh and a low frequency of JhTh, that's enoug because we don't have much value here.
Jan. 16, 2017 | 12:11 a.m.
Nice post :)... ya you're right I should probably be very honest what my actual range looks like and how easy it is to overbluff in these spots...
When I'm very honest my only valuebets are ATss and AJss so I can only bluff little less than 1 combo which would be which would be J9ss but I'm still not sure if I maybe want to bet turn w/ J9ss....so basically when I'm betting J9ss OTT my worst Hand OTR is suddenly QJss. However when I'm slowplaying 56s OTT at a low frequency I can get away with bluffing more than 1 combo.
But I was so sure that he would call a turnbet so there is no point in checking turn in this Hand holding 56s...especially since there is a flushdraw on the board...
Jan. 15, 2017 | 11:34 p.m.
Balancing our check/folds on the turn is not that important (after we bet flop and he calls) we should try to check a very strong hand (KK probably) at a low frequency to deny 100% stabs of villain. But we should never check turn with AK because that would be a loss of value in my eyes.
Its fine if he can generate some profit if we overfold turn to his bet but he shouldn't have an autobet there... also checking KK on the turn allows us to check/raise our AQ giveups too.
Now when he calls the flop and the turn his range is weighted a lot towards Kx so that our strategy needs to consider card removal effects that his bluffcatchers have on our valuebetting region on the river.
Jan. 15, 2017 | 10:59 p.m.
Hand 1 Im on board with 1/3 pot OTF, turn Standard bet. River is spew, you're not getting heroed here. 100% check leaning towards check/fold but if villain is capable of turning SD value into a bluff I may call at some frequency.
Hand 2 I was thinking a lot about the board And the ranges. I estimate his range to be 99-QQ, AJs-AQs, low weight on AKs, a bit of weight on AQo (30% ish), KQs (90% weight), KJs (20% weight), QJs (25% weight), JTs (40% weight)...
Also a 5% ish weight on AJo, ATo, A5s-A2s, 45s-9Ts
I think establishing a checking range is good on this board because we aren't losing much Value by checking AK here because KJ4 is not a board where villain is expecting us to triple barrel bluff a lot so oftentimes we only have 2 streets vs KQs and KJ beats us..
Also I don't see much foldequity when I'm betting this flop as a bluff with stuff like suited wheel Ax so I like to check/fold some suited Ax. Therefore I'm giving him incentive to bet and I don't want to be always check/folding when I check this flop so I'm checking QQ sometimes and AK sometime sometimes so that he can't tripple barrel bluff me because I can easily call down with AK on This board.
Defending our checking range should be easy on this board.
Now when it comes to our betting-range it is more polarized because we established a checking range with our mediocre hands.
I think we still have some incentive to triple barrel bluff AQ on this texture so when I'm betting flop I like the sizing plan of 1/2pot flop, 1/2pot turn, jam river