Wallmonger

Damn, I p[lay nl25 so def I cannot afford the coaching, I hoped for a CFP as I think you mentioned months ago... but I guess it is available.

Gonna add you whenever I play nl50

If what I'm infer is right, Lagasaurus plays micros, like me, so maybe there are some interesting coaching options... can you plz tell me a bit more about your coaching in general. Or I just have to add you on skype? Ty a lot

Nick Steiner
Hi, you open up this thread 2 months ago and there isn't a new update as promised, for many many times.

I know your project isn't a small task and the community respect that, at the same time, the communication isn't that great imo. If you don't plan to post anytime soon, there's no problem with that ofc, but let the community know it.

Probably many users crave these updates but in my POV, you are letting them down.

Anyway, best of luck

no, that line is just a model... it is a better approximation of the winrate over a large sample but don't read too much in that.

meaningless over that sample...

Eh, but are they cold-calling this wide?

This is interesting and you might be right. It would be somewhat useful to have a cold call 3bet stat. Obv not a huge sample, but if he called more than a few times out of 100 hands, we can assume he's calling lighter

I would open up the HUD and see what it tells me. Basically I'm looking for stats that indicates me what action is likely OTT. For example, I have a lot of fishes how donks 70% OTF but shut down OTT, at the same times I have who donks flop the same % and continue to fire OTT. Vs the former I'd like to raise since I expect to put money when ahead and get called a ton. Vs the latter I prefer raise the turn

I forgot one thing, this is NL5, don't overthink too much and bet big whenever you have a strong hand

I would check back flop and start to bet OTT.

As played instead, I think you can fold OTR. You don't have any read and also he could easily value bet KK+.

Regarding your reasoning with blockers, imho that isn't worth much. I mean, for me, it is just better to analyze some data and infer some solid arguments. It happens way to frequently that we take into account blockers, correctly, but villain ends up having the strong obvious hand you are blocking. Don't you think blocker effect are more relevant against a competent opponent who will bluff at some frequency?

EDIT: In my DB it happens 5% of the times...

It seems to me that villain is on the tighter side and the river it should be pretty scary for him unless he has the flush/boat. I think you can just fold river and shrug it off.

IMO, there turn raises don't happen as often as we think and them are seldom even at nl100. Have you done a DB anaysis when you filter how many times SB raises, BB calls, Flop is cbet and called, turn is cbet and raised?
My first thought is this is somewhat underbluffed spot

this was pretty bad card for me

?

You only lose to TT and JJ and T9 which is very very rare.
You will going to probably crack QQ+.
No way we are folding

I gotta reread the hand a few times in order to make sure we have the boat.
I don't know your defintion of thin, but shove your full house isn't thin at all. You are scared of 2 holdings that you block, but at the same time you don't count the times he got AT which is a hand he could have. Also QT is possible and for him is still a value bet OTR. You can have AT or AXsuited.

I think you ended up losing with JJ that's why you posted it :p
Unlucky, move on to the next hand

As played, turn is a way way more bigger bet. This helps you setting better stacks for a river shove which is what you want. I would consider to pot OTT or just go to 1.5 PSB, probablt the latter is better.
Also at these stakes people don't havethe fold button, so you can capitalize on that

is the 9h a bad runout? Because I cannot classify it

My bad, I was 100% sure river was an offsuit 2. Obv no difference between an 8 or a 9, so my question isn't up anymore

But it must be checked, tho

We can't because we don't know the hole cards of the opponents... or we can just make a DB analysis and infer something?

Question: you bet 1/2 OTF, 1/3 OTT and get called, River is an offsuit 9, you check and plan to decide against a bet. Villain bets half pot, would you call? Because I cannot see many bluffs,many marginal hands improved to 2 pair and he still got the nutted hand in his range (at least, some of the times)

I would start to bet OTF with your holding. You can get a call from a worse 7x for sure.

The problem here which the flop check, is that his air have a lot of equity against you, so you aren't inducing anything really beside encourage him to outdraw you pretty easily.
If you would have JJ instead of A7 your reasoning would make more sense, but imho, you are overcomplicating things and leaving money on the table, especially at these stake where people cannot find the fold button

I'm a nitty, so I would fold turn vs 70%ish bet

Looking back you are def right about my flop size, 1/2 is a lot better, I don't know about the turn... Your plan is to b/f and set the price instead to x/c and x/guess river right?

I would just bet probably OTT and give up most river if called. He has range advatange here and I don't see any reason to push further aggression, without any relevant read.

It's a 4bet jam btw...
Well, I don't plan to 4bet not AI, my choices would be fold or just jam

Ty for remind me how nitty and weak I am :).
How do you come up with that 5.5% percentage?

Is time for another update imho :p

So i cannot argue against it

I asked because I think, people are way to biased without any data to back up their claims... but if you have them, more power to you