WotaWaster

Short of anymore specific reads I would be raising flop.  Donk flop of 19% doesn't seem especially tight and we want to raise for very clear value against the fish.

If your read is correct river would be a bet.  99-QQ will account for a way higher percentage of his range than 6x or 8x when we are not even sure he is capable of having suited connectors.  

Having checked I agree its a fold against this player.

The fact he has coldcalled a 3b OOP with a UTG opener still to act is pretty suspect.  If he is capable of having a lot of flushes and straights here he is burning money.  Also very strange to bet $27.25 when effective stack remaining is $35ish?

I want to fold but vs a total unknown who has made 2 plays I think regs make very rarely can we rule out he has sets or possibly even AA?  Don't mind calling and taking a note.

 

I would need a good reason to not bet turn.  Hands like 66, 88, 78, TJ all picked up extra equity.  Seems a clear value bet. 

Raise sizing looks pretty standard to me also.  BvB I do think the call flop, raise turn line is more often bluffy than in certain other situations. 

I wouldn't want to use general turn raise stats on specifically a blind battle with total confidence.  His fold to cbet is not very high and alot of floats picked up some equity on that turn.  I am continuing.

With 100bb stacks check/raising sets you up to either have to call off behind or stick it in on any turn with questionable fold equity when called. 

I don't really like to c/c here it is going to be very difficult to extract value when we hit OOP and we often will check down and lose to Ahigh or a medium pair that we may have got to fold by the river.

Bet/3bet for me seems only option.

When you assume he is isoing the fish wide why do we think that and how wide is wide?  Maybe TT+, AJ+ and a couple suited high card combos?  I would think he would be more weighted towards playable high cards than something like A6s, 56s.  It's also pretty key how strong that assumption is as obviously if there's a decent chance he's just AK+ and QQ+ then we fare alot worse on those occasions.

I would call here also.

We need more description than fish but surely we want to play pots with a
massive SPR and hands that can make the nuts in position to fish?  If the fish is 60/30 then maybe flatting opens us up to getting squeezed very often and we should 3bet instead.   But if the fish is something like 60/10 and/or the players to act behind us are not showing any propensity to squeeze I think calling is the best
option.

If you are not 100% comfortable putting all the money in her then I would fold preflop.

Seems a cooler to me if you lose here.

I think he is questioning whether the turn is a fold, not the river.

When you say readless, do you mean like first hand at table readless as even seeing his vpip/pfr over 20 hands maybe we could make some small assumptions. 

I don't assume an unknowns minraise to be bluffing here but I am not sure we can rule out J9, 8x, Qxc etc. and 100% readless we have to account a small chance to a draw/bluff so think you have to call the turn with no further info.

Think I prefer a bluff to a valueshove. 

His AF doesn't seem overly high, i would weight the minraise to strong value hands or a find out where he's at with a Queen as opposed to draws.  Very ambitious he calls with a worse 2 pairs when the flush and 1 card straight both hit.  We may fold out a chop or sets that slowed down on the flush card.

4b/call would be standard but I definitely like to have AK in your flatting range some % of the time.

I quite like not having a raising range on this flop.  Gives him a lot of difficult turn spots and let's us float with some weaker hands.

As played its a call.  I would give him nutflush draws and 66/67s/56s as well as sets and 2 pairs and we have 37% equity vs that.  If we just occasionally see 89 or an overplayed JJ then we're getting up to 40%+.

I agree with all the other comments though that flop is a call and closer to a fold than a raise.

I don't think we can fold here.  He definitely could be taking this line with a set but could also be taking with AhKx, AxKh or maybe low-mid PP with a heart. 

Over how many hands are your samples?  Do you have stats on cbet turn and cbet river?

It's not really an overbet as hero has pretty much a PSB left.  

Can we rule him out having KK for value?  You didn't provide any reads whatsoever and I think as a general rule our hand is just too strong to fold here without reads.   

If this is not a standard call for you, I don't see enough evidence to change that here.

We have that he squeezed from the BB 3 times out of 30 chances this far.  The chances that he had big hands on all those 3 occasions is pretty high.  The chances that on none of those 3 occasions he was facing a UTG open and it was all CO/BTN/SB action is probably also pretty high. 

If we are not comfortable stacking off here either by barreling turn or by snapping this river shove then I don't think your flop bet acheives much.  We are very rarely giving people more than 2-3 outs and may induce some bluffs or light valuebets and calldowns on later streets by checking.

Your flop and turn analysis doesn't seem very consistent.  If we have a clear value raise on the flop then not alot has changed on the turn.  If he can have turned 2 pairs with A7 then he also has A5,A6 which aren't folding now they have a gutshot.  Bet/calling a bare 56 without diamonds (and that likely bet/jams anyway) seems unlikely.  If he is never calling the flop with A9-AQ our value raising the flop is debatable.

Seems a very clear turn bet to me as played. 

Specifically given we have the Kd makes me lean more towards calling the flop since we block him having the nutflush draw and also can happily call again on a diamond turn.  I also don't think it is a problem to risk another player coming in behind.  Nobody is folding a hand that beats us or a huge draw.  The hands we fold out that would overcall are primarily hands which have 3 outs against us.  I'm happy to keep them in.  

I much prefer these last 2 videos to the previous series.  Great content, please keep them coming.