johnyarmless

Yes definetely agree that b/f is a better line otr for you.
I think he played too passive otf and got lucky.

"The most important factor is how often does he check JTs, TT, JJ, T9s, 99, 88 or broadway flush draws "

On the broadway draws, OTR, I would exclude AsKs (probably 3bets PF), QsJs, QsTs (that is only a gut shot + not the nut flush OTT on a paired board) and KsQs, KsJs, KsTs (which are not even combo draws OTT), so this leaves with only AsQs, AsJs and AsTs (that are calling OTT): 3 combos

JsTs and I mentioned, would only include 3 combos

TT and JJ I would say he checks at least the ones with Ts (Js) that blocks hands he would get value from (T9s and FD), so 8 combos

T9s is almost always checking OTF and calling OTT, imo : 3 combos

I don't think 99 and 88 are ever checking on MW boards with a FD after the PF aggressor checked.

Additionnally, I would consider he checks 98s for pot control OTF : 3 combos
And definetely would add 87s on his PF range (as much as 98s), I would assume he cals once OTT, but I change my opinion and agree he wouldn't try to value bet those OTR, because he loses to any 9.

So, OTR : Bluffs : 3 combos
Worse Value Combos : 14
Better Value Combos : 3

So, I think it's a call ;)

I think you shouldn't exclude he could be value betting TT, T9s, and even 87s if he is not that tight as you mentioned because UTG+1 has a weaker range than normal (chip leader + active). Also, if he is indeed tight, you could even add JJ to his PF range and to his value range otr. As ralphykid mentioned, your line became so weak, that he could try to thin value bet overpairs here.

At the same time, I would only consider 3 combos of JTs, since it's likely he would either bet on the flop or raise ott with JsTs. So I think it's a call here.

You're right.. when the payouts are the same. Got it ;)

You're never "correct" folding AA pre Hehe
You can be "risk averse", "conservative", "better safe than sorry", "unwilling to gamble", but never "correct".

11min, I don't think the call on table 4 is close. How often does a weak player bet 2x pot with less than two pair? I think the call is really bad here.

Thanks John, appreciate your comments

Hi John, very good video. I definitely don't agree with the call with 55. You have to consider the shove comes from a player that has just flatted you with 10ish BB ! He doesn't seen to be a good player, let alone an aggressive one. With that said, his range is highly skewed towards QQ+ AQs+, and you don't have enough equity agains this range.

Regards

10:55 you lead ott with KTo saying that you like to bet polarised there with air and nutty hands, but that's not exactly what you have. You have TP decent kicker with good SD value, wouldn't the best be to x/c here?

Like Cozacu mentioned, a video where you focus on a specific position will be nice. 30/40 min of just SB x BB or just sqz, or only 3b pots OOP, these kind of things.