julien808
21 points
Hello,
This is a 450€ MTT in Spain, with 45k€ "donated" by the casino (accumulated from mtts played throughout the year with a small rake).
its Day 1A (140 entries) (there are two Day 1's) levels are 45mins and its last 10mins on level 500/1k/100 , last level is 600/1200/100, then its Day 2.
I have 33k, average is 67k.
One girl just arrives, around age 27 and seems reg/weak and opens to 2.5k MP with around 70k stack.
The CO-1 makes it 7k (he has 47k)
One note about him : its a friend within the casino, a few levels earlier i saw him squeeze on CO x4.2 with A7s with the caller being a clear whale and opener tight from EP. I already knew he likes to 3b/squeeze a lot ip : saw him squeeze in cash games vs 3 IP with QJo.
Iam CO with AJo and decide to jam AJo, there is 13.4k in the middle.
I calculated the girl opens 24% and folds 85%, when she calls my ev is -10.5k (15% of the time)
I calculated the reg, once the girl folds, 3bets 8.1% polar (which is the bare minimum i think) , his range here :
http://prntscr.com/dsb5l8
He calls all is value from his 3betting range, TT+AK (AQ and 99 doesnt 3bet)
So when the girl folds, the ev vs the reg is +3.14k (85% of the time)
So my ev total is +1.1k or +1.1b with a 33bb stack.
And if being a little less pesimist (like his sizing 7k seemed more with a hand that wanted to go AI PF or bluff like AK and JJ/QQ, usually KK+ 3bet smaller) + uping his 3betting range to 10/11% my ev can bump to 2.5bb
My other reason to shove is that next level was really close (last from day1).
I was most likely going to be 0.2-0.4x average for day 2 which is really short.
We were miles away from ITM and i could re entry the next day (i overrolled for the mtt, and dont care for the money)
The structure is missing levels sometimes and a bit fast.
Thanks in advance,
Jan. 6, 2017 | 6:33 p.m.
It's pretty clear, do you have a table including every hands and showing up how many BBs you need to profitably push or resteal with them given a specific position ?
Sept. 7, 2015 | 11:23 a.m.
It's pretty clear, do you have a table including every hands and showing up how many BBs you need to profitably push or resteal with them given a specific position ?
Sept. 6, 2015 | 10:40 p.m.
Ok but then are we leading the whole range ?
If we have A2 on AQ3Q, I don't see much reason to lead here and valuetown myself vs his stronger Ax. That's why I'm sometimes wondering about the efficiency of this particular strategy I've seen.
Aug. 21, 2015 | 11:19 a.m.
I agree I don't have many since I will only flat the suited ones (76s, 87s, 97s, A7s) but on the other hand I still have all of those while he shouldn't have more than 2.
But my question is more general, lets say the board was AQx in a 3 bet pot, he cbets flop I call, turn brings a queen. Here we would have many KQo/Qx suited and eventually QJo so would a small lead make sense here with our whole range, or even leading big with our Qx/bluffs ?
Can we transpose the concept of donbetting turns to 3-bet pots ?
Aug. 20, 2015 | 9:08 p.m.
BB: $229.68
UTG: $288.55
CO: $100.00
BN: $103.95
Rake is $2.50
Aug. 20, 2015 | 3:37 p.m.
I was pretty sure it was a fish though, but folded to his river shove without reads, not every fish are spazzy enough in 100zoom to call that by default imo.
Aug. 17, 2015 | 8:27 p.m.
Nice post.
Obviously not going to have a bluffing range turn and full value exploit bet.
I prefer my small bet/fold turn since we deny him some equity, and its a lot cheaper than B/X/C a 3/4 bet on a blank river, especially readless.
Aug. 17, 2015 | 2:01 a.m.
yes but does those suited backdoors hands are enough combos (reduced since he wont shove 100% of the time) compared to T9s 54s, sets, 2pairs ?
Aug. 16, 2015 | 6:57 p.m.
SB: $106.89
BB: $192.56 (Hero)
UTG: $191.17
MP: $107.35
CO: $548.16
Aug. 16, 2015 | 2:51 p.m.
2min30 : You say that he has AJ very rarely given that he didn't 3-bet pf and didn't bet the flop on QQT.
However i personally think he has most of them.
The std play with AJo is to just call pf and on the flop I don't see much merits in betting because he has a decent showdown value and can improve on several turn/river. He can also take down the pot later in the hand.
What do you think ?
June 14, 2015 | 6:04 p.m.
SB: $59.52
BB: $130.46 (Hero)
UTG: $98.50
MP: $92.40
CO: $29.23
- open 52% bu, in these pos fold3b 42% (19occ)
- overall fold/call 3b 52/39
- F vs cbet flop/turn 26(39)/25(16) (as 3bcaller ip)
I thought i was gonna have tons off 3barrel bluffs on that board,
And given that i have blockers on QK and QT, i would include AQ in my value range.
in a exploitative point of view, seems like vilain wouldnt call Ax x<J, since his wtsd is 26% (8kh)
But his fold to cbet per streets as caller ip is pretty low ( 38/47/29(7) )
So i wasnt certain at all about his capacity to fold Ax there, and shoved.
Thoughts ? Thanks in advance.
May 18, 2015 | 11:41 p.m.
9 min w/76s : what kind of hands would you be check/raising with on the Flop if you have any check raising hands at all ?
May 9, 2015 | 7:24 p.m.
41min15 : Someone is leaving you a comment in the chat. Can you tell us more about it ?
May 1, 2015 | 11:34 p.m.
So what you mean is that JTs, given that it has a gutshot on the turn giving you more equity, is higher in your ranger than K9o ?
April 29, 2015 | 3:56 p.m.
Yes i was a bit surprised by this as well, given that you could float hands like JTs with some backdoors and that would actually be weaker on the turn.
April 29, 2015 | 3:04 p.m.
15 min : JJ hand, on the river you are fucked whatever you do as you say, so why don't just fold and save some tilt ?
Also i'm not sure people will exploit you enough with float on the flops to make this a profitable call. He has all the boats you cannot have and he might also showdown 99-TT and expect to win sometimes against AK/AQ, what do you think ?
April 28, 2015 | 9:47 p.m.
You are supposed to know the answer Tom...
April 24, 2015 | 1:52 a.m.
First hand with 66, folding river seems quite insane to me. He will always be valuebetting 22 with this sizing and you just need to be right around 25% of the time so even if he is not bluffing i don't think you can fold. I expect him to call qtcc also on the flop and we are not sure about kqcc. If he still can be bluffing then it's an even easier call. I like shoving turn tho if we think he ll never bluff river.
April 21, 2015 | 12:25 a.m.
21 min w/87ss : Why whould you shove a hand without blocker against an open raise from an opponent with a 18bb stack (unlikely to open a lot). I consider this hand as an easy fold. Am i missing something ?
April 16, 2015 | 11:52 p.m.
Hello, excellent video :)
I would like to know how much % do you open OTB with that x2.3 sizing (6-max tables)?
ty
April 11, 2015 | 5:23 p.m.
Yes the video is broken.
April 10, 2015 | 5:23 p.m.
How do you arrive to a ratio of 60/40 ?
April 9, 2015 | 11:47 a.m.
23 min with KT, why are you cbetting this board without any bd ?
Dont you think you have too many bluffs if you cbet this (i thought it was ok to check ace high along with K'high most of the time) ?
Whats the plan turn river ?
April 9, 2015 | 1:52 a.m.
What others bluffs would you have on the aq hand when you ovb river ?
I think you need to be careful with your frequencies in this spot.
April 8, 2015 | 9:06 a.m.
Thanks
April 7, 2015 | 4:22 a.m.
Great vid!
I was wondering how do you get the pot odds and %age on the table? With table ninja?
Thank you.
April 6, 2015 | 11:39 a.m.
Wow nice reply, i am curious to know what ppl think about this.
Btw i don't understand the bet/fold on the river given that there just over a half pot size bet ^^
Yes that's what I realized recently, thank you for confirming it with your comment.
What would be your leading strategy on this example : "In a 3-bet pot, flop comes AQx, Vilain cbets and Hero calls, turn Q.
Here we would clearly have a range advantage with all the KQo/Qx suited and eventually QJoff in our range. Does it make sense to donk lead small with our whole range or big with a polarized range of bluffs/Qx ?"
Aug. 23, 2015 | 6:10 p.m.