No, no worries. I'm just trying to come up with a strong framework for decision making and sometimes I have to clarify some things. ;) I can't argue with your sims without having a closer look at them myself. Just 40% VPIP seems too tight to me given stats, description and positions we are in + a ton of his top range probably has to be exluded due to his massive 3b%. For the rest I could be convinced that with all uncertainty and metagame concerns this might be too thin (I actually also just flatcalled ingame) but I don't think we need to make our hand much better than this to find a raise for value.
Dec. 6, 2017 | 1:24 p.m.
Well, you said we need 60% to raise and between this and 51,3% there's a huge difference. I also wouldn't say my range is the best-case assumption. Yes, he needs that wide of a calling range and I might be off enough on this to still make call > raise but I think it's very easy to underestimate this spot or his range because we're automatically interpolating too much with population or what we ourselves consider a reasonable playing style. Manics however are so rare and unique player types often playing so far beyond our imagination that I think it's always worth and necessary going into the details and seeing how ranges and numbers work out.
Dec. 6, 2017 | 9:03 a.m.
How do you arrive at these numbers? Rake at these stakes is 5% with a $0.12 cap. Assuming rake were uncapped to make calculations easier and more conservative isn't it just that instead of at least 1:1 to break-even on a raise I now need 1:0.95 which corresponds to ~51,3% equity?
Dec. 5, 2017 | 10:13 p.m.
villain 55/28 over 30 hands
SB: $7.34 (183.5 bb)
BB: $4.64 (116 bb)
MP: $4 (100 bb)
CO: $2.40 (60 bb)
Hero (BTN): $4 (100 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BTN with 9 T
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.08, SB calls $0.06, BB folds
Flop: ($0.20) T 3 K (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($0.20) 9 (2 players)
SB bets $0.20, Hero calls $0.20
River: ($0.60) 2 (2 players)
SB bets $0.60, Hero ?
villain has been splashing around big time. I think he's 3betting more than given since MGM only tracks hands where I VPIP in. I've seen him shoving preflop or OTF with massive overbets a couple of times and he seems in general very button clicky. Potsize or above has been his usual bet size. Given all that, does it make sense to raise the river? I'm a little worried as there are quite a bunch of better 2p and QJ out there and it will be a super uncomfortable spot if he shoves over the top. I can still see him calling off with a ton of worse though. Would you then call or fold to a shove if you decided to raise?
Dec. 4, 2017 | 10:09 p.m.
Yes, that's what I figured. I guess, I just feel very uncomfortable with the betting line because I usually end up putting in a ton of money vs a fishy guy with still quite unknown tendencies. Suppose the turn is 3h. I guess in this case, we cbet flop on the small side and x/c any reasonable turn bet. I feel like he's then either going to bet the river in which case I have to make a pretty thin and speculative river call to win or he's going to xb and I'm pretty much always losing vs a weak to medium pair.
Same story if the turn is a Qs. Seems like on of the ideal cards to continue betting on but I don't expect him to fold much as a ton of his hands improved or is Jx+ anyway. So again I either have to triple off, not having a great grasp of his postflop/calldown ranges or check and concede the pot after putting in a ton of money.
Yes, sometimes I'll improve to TP and win a sizeable pot this way but I don't think my implied odds on those cards are super amazing. All in all just doesn't seem like a great spot.
Nov. 27, 2017 | 2:31 p.m.
villain 44/27, 50 hands
Agg% F/T/R: 19/25/25
SB: $10.59 (105.9 bb)
Hero (BB): $15.88 (158.8 bb)
BTN: $11.24 (112.4 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BB with A K
BTN raises to $0.30, SB folds, Hero raises to $1.05, BTN calls $0.75
Flop: ($2.15) 3 8 J (2 players)
I have been battling with this guy a little bit on a former 3handed table slowly filling up. I've seen some fishy moves like a weird turn merge bet and a preflop 3b call with K2s BTN vs BB. I'm assuming at this point he's quite fishy and a little stationy. His aggression stats are somewhat contradictory to our history because he has been stabbing flop or turn in basically 4 of 4 occasions when I gave him the opportunity as PFA.
That's why I'm a quite unsure about how to play this on the flop. Betting certainly has merit because I can bet quite small and dictate the price. I don't expect him to fold much though and continuing betting on clubs or a Q doesn't seem super attractive vs this guy. I can also x/c but it will be tough to win unimproved if two bets go in on any 2 streets. Thoughts?
Nov. 26, 2017 | 2:56 p.m.
Wait, I didn't say he's a good reg. I just have 60 hands of him and really no postflop reads.The regs in my pool are for the most part too tight, too passive, very straight forward and bluff way to little. His preflop stats could indicate he's more aggressive and better balanced than that but I don't have any real indication of this, especially in 3bet or 4bet pots.
So I think calling off all AQ here is burning money. Few regs in my pool have a reasonable 4b bluffing range at all and there are very few strong draws on this board to begin with. I also bet he doesn't expect me to fold AQ to his sizing scheme which makes it further unlikely he's bluffing. I can get on board with defending some AQ here from a more theoretical standpoint but wouldn't be surprised at all if this is a correct fold more often than not.
Nov. 20, 2017 | 10:39 a.m.
villain 28/22 over 60 hands
SB: $10.37 (103.7 bb)
Hero (BB): $20.99 (209.9 bb)
MP: $9.80 (98 bb)
CO: $9.35 (93.5 bb)
BTN: $10.60 (106 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BB with A Q
2 folds, BTN raises to $0.20, SB folds, Hero raises to $0.80, BTN raises to $2.20, Hero calls $1.40
Flop: ($4.45) 8 3 A (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $2.95, Hero calls $2.95
Turn: ($10.35) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $5.45, Hero ?
Pre should be fairly std vs an unknown reggy player. When he bets so large on the flop, I'd say his range is strongly weighted towards value and draws he's going to shove the turn with. I expect a 2nd barrel close to 100% of the time. And this makes it quite uncomfortable because he can have AK, AA whereas I'll likely shove those pre 100% of the time. His bet is also too expensive to happily call flop and fold turn it seems. On the other hand however, this is the strongest hand I can show up with postflop, so if I fold this, I pretty much fold 100% of my range. How do you go about this spot? Maybe play a mixed strategy and call some % of AQ unblocking spades and explo fold the rest either on either street?
Nov. 19, 2017 | 10:38 p.m.
I just feel the need to play a ton of hands when I play vs someone who's playing close to any hand and being super bad postflop. I feel like making a big mistake by not widening my range to a significant extent or at least leaving a ton of money at the table. The reality however is that it gets me into a ton of marginal, often multiway spots postflop where I'm likely messing up quite a bit.
On the other hand, when I'm nutpeddling for hands, it's quite easy for a maniac to attack and put a ton of pressure on my very condensed range, especially in PLO where the texture changes every so often.
Nov. 10, 2017 | 4:17 p.m.
SB: $2.95 (73.8 bb)
BB: $1.14 (28.5 bb)
UTG: $4 (100 bb)
MP: $5.94 (148.5 bb)
CO: $4.43 (110.8 bb)
Hero (BTN): $4.08 (102 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BTN with T 3 6 K
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.14, CO folds, Hero ?
More of a general question: MP was a maniac, at this point RFI'ing close to any starting hand pre. Post he was a little more conservative but still betting waay too much. How do we go about spots like these? I basically wanna play a lot of hands vs this guy but often the pot will end up 3way+ and getting involved with marginal to bad multiway draws just seems to suck. I also don't see this working out well as an iso 3bet unless villain is x/folding a ton of flops, so do we still have to just fold this? What about sth like 8754ss which seems like another good example?
Nov. 6, 2017 | 10:33 p.m.
villain 26/21/3b 8 over 80 hands
RFI UTG/MP is 14/13 over this small sample
SB: $8.80 (88 bb)
BB: $10 (100 bb)
UTG: $11.23 (112.3 bb)
Hero (MP): $10.57 (105.7 bb)
CO: $10 (100 bb)
BTN: $10.61 (106.1 bb)
Preflop: Hero is MP with J A
UTG raises to $0.30, Hero raises to $0.90, 4 folds, UTG calls $0.60
Flop: ($1.95) T 8 5 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($1.95) K (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $1.35, UTG calls $1.35
River: ($4.65) 8 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero ?
Preflop: Not sure what do to with this as a std really. I think I might be able to call AQo profitably there but if I also occasionally 3b low suited connectors, low suited aces and some weaker suited broadways with some frequency, throwing in all AJo seems a bit too wide. Can I just fold this in these positions or go with a mixed strategy?
Flop: I don't think cbetting makes sense here. One of the weakest hands in my range.
Turn: Again unsure about my bluffing frequencies. Since I have all AKo in my range and maybe some KJs, this card improves my range quite a lot. However I don't expect him to fold QQ, JJ to a single bet ever so it seems like I should bet twice more often than not. Blocking JJ is not ideal, however I do block AK which might be incentivised to x/c in his shoes. This also seems like one of my highest equity bluffs I show up here with. Maybe again go with a frequency bluff here assuming I have all AJo in my preflop range?
Nov. 4, 2017 | 1:01 p.m.
BB 19/12/3b 6 over 300 hands
CO 38/16 over 40 hands
SB: $10.84 (108.4 bb)
BB: $10 (100 bb)
Hero (MP): $10.45 (104.5 bb)
CO: $9.85 (98.5 bb)
BTN: $15.40 (154 bb)
Preflop: Hero is MP with Q A
Hero raises to $0.30, CO calls $0.30, 2 folds, BB raises to $1.10, Hero ?
Always unsure what to do in these spots. The squeezer is really tight so I'm not sure I have a profitable flat here despite having a fishy player behind me who probably coldcalls and overcalls too wide. Since this is then one of the strongest hands with best blockers to a value 4betting range, I also thought about 4betting, but I'm not sure I wanna have a bluff 4betting range at all vs a player that tight. So is this just a fold then?
Oct. 16, 2017 | 7:59 a.m.
Idk if I'd classify this as a bluff, at least it's some sort of hybrid. It seems more like an exploitative freeroll because bluffing means, he has stronger hands than mine in his x/c range and I very rarely see that happen. I could be off on this but that has been my premise and the crux I was asking about. Yes, from a theoretical perspective, QQ is probably an even better bet/bluff but I can still see shoving this being profitable.
Oct. 5, 2017 | 8:21 a.m.
villain mostly unknown,
plays 33/26 over 40 hands and has 3bet twice before
SB: $10.25 (102.5 bb)
BB: $0.48 (4.8 bb)
Hero (CO): $10.22 (102.2 bb)
BTN: $20.80 (208 bb)
Preflop: Hero is CO with A Q
Hero raises to $0.25, BTN folds, SB raises to $0.85, BB folds, Hero calls $0.60
Flop: ($1.80) A 7 2 (2 players)
SB bets $1.10, Hero calls $1.10
Turn: ($4) K (2 players)
SB bets $2, Hero calls $2
River: ($8) 2 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero ($6.27) ?
Do you like shoving here? With his flop & turn sizing, it just looks like we're very rarely beat. Don't expect him to be trapping with these sizings pretty much ever. I'm only slightly worried that people don't vbet thinly enough and x/c AK a little too often and/or don't bet turn with AQ-AT often enough but it all in all still seems like a decent and +ev spot. What do you think?
Oct. 4, 2017 | 9:07 p.m.
Are we then actually also flatting AA here or do we split our range and mix flatting and 5betting AA along with a few 5bet bluff like AQo?
Aug. 24, 2017 | 3:20 p.m.
Vs a total unknown (likely) fish, I think I'd make an unhappy but disciplined fold. Just an unfortunate spot really. Vs a range of sets, 88, A7, 75s, 53s, 64s, 86s we're basically just flipping and we still have to worry about BB having slowplayed a set. I also doubt the average rec has a wide enough raising range here as lot of them are quite passive and fit-or-fold postflop. Having a read on his tendencies can change things dramatically of course. Still, vs an unknown, I think I prefer a fold, partly also to dodge the super high variance in a very marginal spot at best.
Aug. 24, 2017 | 12:54 p.m.
I'd say AK gets 4bet close to 100% preflop and I'd also be pretty surprised if a player who appears to be pretty tight and straight-forward shoves KQ for value OTR. I'd also go off the assumption that a player like this less frequently floats the flop and therefore underbluffs the river all of which makes it a pretty thin x/c if you ask me.
I can totaly see this being a super easy call on higher stakes but I'd be surprised if it is vs the average nitty NL50 reg.
Aug. 24, 2017 | 9:14 a.m.
Agree, I think I'd also bet flop smaller if I decide on betting this vs a SB range. I think it's a pretty easy fold as played because noone at these stakes is bluffing enough like this but if you bet turn and river bigger, you can b/f even more comfortable.
Aug. 8, 2017 | 10:31 a.m.
Gii in this spot 4way vs unknown is just pretty bad. Since there are so few reasonable value hands in his range, you could call turn and hope he slows down on the river but in reality it's probably just a turn fold, especially since you block the Qs. People just don't bluff enough in that spot and I think you'll see Q4s or 88 before you see KQ or JThh.
And yes, definitely 3bet this pre, especially if the blinds are fishy. TP loses a ton of value multiway.
Aug. 8, 2017 | 10:25 a.m.
Imo pretty std defend pre. I would only fold vs tight BTN opening ranges.
I don't mind postflop as played depending on how strong your read is. River depends a lot on your opponent (and maybe your affinity to embrace variance) but we have one of our better bluffcatchers unblocking hearts and most of his gutshots, he has a ton of possible bluffing candidates and I find that overaggressive micro regs go for it a lot (and don't vbet thinly enough).
Not to mention this calldown has metagame value, too.
Aug. 8, 2017 | 10:03 a.m.
I totally agree with your analysis, Phil. If Essential was understood mainly as a starting point for beginners, I think the content was way too advanced and therefore certainly underpriced. If I have a look at the most recent NL/PL Essential videos even right now, they show stakes around 0.5/1 and up rather being rule than exception. In fact, I always had to select pretty thoroughly to find content applicable for my stakes (NL/PL50 and below) and hurting my game by absorbing too advanced concepts, playing styles and thinking patterns which won't work or even backfire in my games was quite a big risk.
I think Essential should have been and be focussed a lot more towards lower levels and ideally have the more advanced concepts being moved to Elite or even a 3rd tier and pricing option in-between (following the forum classification). Not saying the pricing change isn't justified but I don't think it alone solves the underlying problem.
Aug. 3, 2017 | 11:20 a.m.
As played it's a reasonable line to choose vs a wider and weaker opponent but vs someone who has a tight 3b range to begin with and makes it rather large pre I'd just fold flop unless he makes it smaller. And yes, folding this turn after making the flop call is especially bad and kind of logically inconsistent.
July 25, 2017 | 9:26 a.m.
Pretty easy river vbet/fold at these stakes, especially vs someone not auto topping up. There's still a ton of value from worse and virtually noone at 2NL is going to exploit you by ripping in Ax here because you're capped, at least not on purpose. Especially that big of an overbet jam is pretty much always a tricky played flush. Wp imo.
July 24, 2017 | 9:58 a.m.
I'd be really surprised if this is a preflop fold. Pros/coaches defend ridiculously wide closing the action. I think I'm even rather tight in these spots due to rake and lacking postflop skills. :D
And I don't even think this hand is that bad. Still has some connectivity and I'll have a decent range advantage on low boards.
July 18, 2017 | 9:48 a.m.
Me? No, not really. It probably depends on how wide villain is going to bet this card. The better he is, the wider and more merged I expect him to bet this card because it is so great for his range. And in that case I strongly prefer x/r because he can play the river way way better than me if I just x/c.
If he's more fit or fold, which might easily be the case at these stakes, then I probably should x/c for bare pot odds or even lead small to set my own price as I think he'll be very hesitant to raise this very wide.
July 17, 2017 | 10:10 a.m.
No real reads or stats on both guys since this is MGM and I've just started this table. BTN seems at least halfway solid and SB doesn't auto top-up.
I'm not sure if this is a great spot to lead the flop though. The 76 still seems one or two notches too high up. Since I 3bet a ton of my overpairs and big broadway hands, BTN should still have a pretty clear range advantage and therefore cbet quite frequently. Another advantage: I can get away easily if he cbets and the SB comes over the top.
July 16, 2017 | 10:20 a.m.
SB: $9.60 (96 bb)
Hero (BB): $10.52 (105.2 bb)
BTN: $12.14 (121.4 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BB with T 5 8 4
BTN raises to $0.35, SB calls $0.30, Hero calls $0.25
Flop: ($1.05) J 6 7 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, BTN checks
Turn: ($1.05) A (3 players)
SB checks, Hero ?
What's the best option here? My first instinct was to bet because I have very decent equity and will very likely not win the pot if it checks through again. However, the A is a very good card for BTNs range so I'm not sure I wanna lead here. Getting raised would be really bad, too. If I x/c, I don't have the initiative OTR however and so will again very likely lose the pot unimproved whereas he'll either not put any more money in or have me dominated quite frequently on the cards that hit me. Does this make it a decent spot to x/r/f the turn and fire most rivers?
Since this seems like a result of playing a very marginal preflop hand: I wouldn't autocall this in the BB under any circumstances but don't think I can fold this 3handed, closing the action?!
July 15, 2017 | 8:47 p.m.
Idk, I think I'd still fold pre even under the conditions described. The 3bet is massive, I doubt we get odds to setmine and 77 play so badly being sandwiched between two bad players that I don't think it's worth it getting involved for that price. The fact that UTG never folds to 3bets also means we have less implied odds on hitting a set and there's still a slight chance he might come over the top in which case we wasted 10 BBs.
July 13, 2017 | 10:08 a.m.
I don't like not betting the flop. From what I've seen by him, I'm quite sure he'll bet turn almost always for quite a big sizing. Cbetting the flop myself means I can dictate the price and almost always see a free river unless he chooses a really funky line like x/c flop, lead turn.
Honestly, I think it's a decision between betting three times on most runouts or cbet flop and chk down unimproved. And while betting throuh probably is the correct theory-play I'm likely better off exploitatively just checking back turn at least unless I know for sure he's a solid reg.