wombel89

Hi guys,

So I have a question about a calculation I made for a 3bet allin situation.
I was playing the following tournament when this hand occured:

888poker Hand History for Game 916437127
$300/$600 Blinds No Limit Holdem - * 30 06 2017 22:16:58
Tournament #105719880 $8 + $0.80 - Table #56 8 Max (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Button : ( $18,216 )
Hero in SB: ( $14,636 )
BB : ( $67,656 )
UTG : ( $6,818 )
MP : ( $10,706 )
MP+1 : ( $19,354 )
Hi-jack : ( $33,286 )
Cutoff : ( $7,448 )
posts ante [$70]
posts ante [$70]
posts ante [$70]
posts ante [$70]
posts ante [$70]
posts ante [$70]
posts ante [$70]
posts ante [$70]
Hero posts small blind [$300]
BB posts big blind [$600]
* Dealing down cards *
Dealt to Hero in SB [ Ad, 7h ]
folds
folds
folds
folds
folds
BTN raises [$1,384]
Hero in SB raises [$14,266]

Okay, so at this point my chip stack is 14.266 (after posting my SB). The button raises and his positional awareness of 94 hands is as following:

CO: 50% (2)
Btn: 50% (2), which will be 3 times now
SB: 100% (3)

He's playing overall 17/15 with a 3bet of 2,8% and 12,0 agg.fact. which leads me to think he's too agressive overall, but a competent player, knows what he's doing. My calculation is as following (and this is hypothetical which I think he raises pre and calls my shove with):

Raise PF on BTN 43,90%
(22+, 43s, 54s, 65s, 76s, 87s+, 97s+, T7s+, J7s+, Q7s+, K5s+, 87o, 98o, T8o, J8o, Q8o, K7o, every Ax)

Calls vs shove 7,10%
(88+, AJo+, AJs+, KQs)

Out of the 100% of his raisingrange he will call my shove with 16,17% of hands (43,9% / 7,1%)
He will fold 83,83% (100% - 16,17%)

If he calls and I lose I will lose 14.266 chips. 14.266 (100%) / 10 x 16,17% = 23.068,12
If he folds I will win 2.844 chips. 2.844 (100%) / 10 x 83,83% = 23.841,25
-------------
Win chips 773,13

So I will win some more than 1 bb overall?
Next to this when he calls my allin with his callrange (which I just described) I still have 28,132% chance to win.

Though it seems 24bb's is too risky to shove in this spot, but after calculation it seems like a pretty must shove?
If I did not do the match right feel free to correct me. Maybe someone has a helpfull tool of Excel-spreadsheet for me for such spots?

Many thanks in advance!

Greetings,

Marco

Hi guys, I'm playing the $54+r tournament on Party when 60 players remain of the 296 field. 40 Players gets paid.

Just won a nice pot raising pre w/QQ and someone 3betshoved w/AQs.
A couple of hands later I have JJ and villain is bigstacked and I'm feeling I've being pushed maybe cause he's CL. Not wanted to get much out of line though.
What line would you take?

I'm playing 21/17, 8,6 3bet
Villain is playing 24/25, 12,5 3bet

Thanks in advance!

***** Hand History for Game 12630985574 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $54 USD Buy-in Trny:78692807 Level:15 Blinds-Antes(600/1.200 -125) - Monday, February 04, 23:50:00 CET 2013
Table $40,000 Gtd Rebuy (2995035) Table #26 (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 9/10
Seat 6: Arekias ( 11,842 )
Seat 3: Filursen ( 102,724 )
Seat 7: Gregguiche6 ( 51,597 )
Seat 8: Skillful_Luck. ( 51,414 )
Seat 9: WWHeisenberg ( 26,795 )
Seat 1: Wombel1989 ( 50,952 )
Seat 5: YouSuxDibbards ( 11,770 )
Seat 2: andyhin22 ( 23,166 )
Seat 10: teno21 ( 19,555 )
Trny:78692807 Level:15
Blinds-Antes(600/1.200 -125)
Wombel1989 posts ante [125]
andyhin22 posts ante [125]
Filursen posts ante [125]
YouSuxDibbards posts ante [125]
Arekias posts ante [125]
Gregguiche6 posts ante [125]
Skillful_Luck. posts ante [125]
WWHeisenberg posts ante [125]
teno21 posts ante [125]
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Wombel1989 [ Jd Jh ]
Skillful_Luck. folds
WWHeisenberg folds
teno21 folds
There will be a break in 4 minute(s)
Wombel1989 raises [2,600]
andyhin22 folds
Filursen raises [5,895]
YouSuxDibbards folds
Arekias folds
Gregguiche6 folds
Wombel1989 calls [3,295]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 6c, 2s, 4s ]
Wombel1989 checks
Filursen bets [6,115]
Wombel1989 calls [6,115]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 9h ]
Wombel1989 checks
Filursen checks
** Dealing River ** [ As ]
Wombel1989 checks
Filursen bets [13,200]
Your time bank will be activated in 6 secs. If you do not want it to be used, please act now.
Wombel1989 will be using his time bank for this hand.
Wombel1989 ?