zydes
5 points
Hello everyone,
This is an assertion as much as it is a question.
I have a calculation but I'm not sure if I'm thinking right. Therefore, it would be helpful if other eyes can look at this and say if it is right or wrong. If that's wrong, I'd love to learn how to think about it instead.
We have 65 of harts and villain have AA without harts.
Flopp is KQ9 with two harts.
Therefore, we have a flushdraw on the flop without overcards and we have 37,5% chans of winning.
The pot is $1000 and the action is,
Villian bets $500 and hero shove all in for $2000.
We all know that if villian folds hero win $1000(pot)+$500(villians bet)=$1500
If he calls we loose $2000 but we can draw out on him therefore we only loose:
-- This is my calculation --
$2000(hero bet)+$2000(villian bet)+$1000(pot)=$5000
..37,5% is hero chans of winning when called..
$5000*0,375=$1875
$2000(hero bet)-$1875(getting back when called)=$125
-- End of calculation --
Now we can say:
If he folds we win $1500
If he calls we loose $125
So then,
1500/(1500+125) = .9
So if he calls 90% we’re breaking even. Any less and we’re in the positive.
I think im right but I really need to get lectured if im wrong.
Thanks to all that did take time to read this!
April 25, 2018 | 8:01 a.m.
Hi Steve Paul. I love your videos. I have a easy question for you, but something I have hard to think about. I play on stars and have 12bb/100h on 25NL on 200 000 hands. I dont want to change my play to much but I think I found something I can change. But first I wont to ask you before changeing.
I did check my database for the first time and i found out that the playerpool fold to CB on flopp 34%, turn 32% and river 54%. I Think I should bet 100% of all rivers about 80% of pot and it will make me more money beacuse they overfold river? But I really dont know if this is right and how I can think. How often should they call river if I bet 60-80% of pot on river and how is the match about it. Is they overfolding? Im so bad at this things.
Thanks
Jan. 15, 2017 | 5:01 a.m.
Hi Steve Paul! Is it possible to download your hud to hm2?
Jan. 11, 2017 | 11:13 p.m.
We are right now 40 players that talk about cashgame hands all nights in discord. Join if you are a grinder :)
We use discord: https://discord.gg/g4bXkNW
Jan. 9, 2017 | 3:14 p.m.
We are right now 40 players that talk about cashgame hands all nights in discord. Join if you are a grinder :)
We use discord: https://discord.gg/g4bXkNW
Jan. 9, 2017 | 3:13 p.m.
Its really important that you write your own stats for the sesson. If you are a 10+% squeeser he can flat AA-QQ to trap u.
If you dont have a high squeesstats I quees he plays AK like that sometimes.
I dont see people do that with 99-77 and AQ-AJ. I quess he has AK if you are tight squeeser in bb and he has AA-QQ if you are a loosersqueeser.
Call if you think he has AK and fold preflopp if you think he trapped you.
Dec. 28, 2016 | 6:08 a.m.
We are 10 people that talks poker all day and night in discord.
Join if you love poker and its all you wanna do.
https://discord.gg/g4bXkNW
Nov. 19, 2016 | 1:57 a.m.
Thanks for the video, it's great.
I wonder if you will make any 9 player Sit&Go and talk about bubble play. It's very interesting when there are 4 players left and 3 paid.
Especially when you are the next biggest stack and must beware of the leader.
Nov. 18, 2016 | 7:22 a.m.
You makeing a joke right?
Nov. 17, 2016 | 9:39 p.m.
We are a 8 player group that talks poker all night.
If you want to join and talk, come do our discord channel.
https://discord.gg/g4bXkNW
Nov. 17, 2016 | 1:13 a.m.
I think your hand is straightforward if you call. But thats probably the best play anyway.
Never go all in with 25bb in that spot, AJ is just only a 2 picturecard hand. Its a 9handed table and you can wait for better spots against bad players.
If you raise and he 4bet you put yourself in a guessing game, you dont want that in poker in spots like that.
Nov. 12, 2016 | 10:47 p.m.
I quess I fold pre and show sb or b with 50% range instead
Nov. 11, 2016 | 2:27 p.m.
What do you guys think about limping J4 in this spot?
PokerStars Hand #161220682911: Tournament #1723444201, $1.39+$0.11 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (90/180) - 2016/11/11 5:11:57 CET [2016/11/10 23:11:57 ET]
Table '1723444201 1' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: 13lufOf13Age (2343 in chips)
Seat 4: chachi18986 (185 in chips)
Seat 8: Grünalge (208 in chips)
Seat 9: Hero (1764 in chips)
13lufOf13Age: posts the ante 18
chachi18986: posts the ante 18
Grünalge: posts the ante 18
Hero: posts the ante 18
13lufOf13Age: posts small blind 90
chachi18986: posts big blind 167 and is all-in
* HOLE CARDS *
Dealt to Hero [4d Js]
Grünalge: folds
Hero: calls 180
Nov. 11, 2016 | 4:23 a.m.
I show preflop! You only raise if you Think they push A9-A2 and low pocket often! and then you call of
Nov. 11, 2016 | 3:38 a.m.
Im in Skypename: pokerpappan
Im the one from Uppsala
Me and som Swedish players use discord to talk poker. Wanna join?
Call. It was unlucky.
Dec. 29, 2017 | 1:54 a.m.