I was researching Bayes Theorem a bit after Phil mentioned it in a recent video, was wondering if someone who knows more about it can help with a question:

If the overall player pool 3bet frequency is x, and a player has 3bet y of z times, what is the best estimate of his true 3bet %?

This doesn't quite work to plug into the equations I've learned so far. Maybe the question is poorly formulated and I need to be more specific. For example, I know how to find how likely it is that the player's true 3bet % is one of two options I pick (say, 10% or 20%). Maybe it's also necessary to make some assumptions about the distribution of the player population?

Anyway, any help would be appreciated.