I really dislike it when someone who's an expert at one thing (in this case poker) takes that respect and uses it as a bully pulpit to persuade people they're to be trusted in another domain (corona virus and its effects). So I feel like an asshole making this post. I also am well aware I'm no expert, and am not likely to have better takes about CV than the general population. However, like most of you I've spent a large amount of time reading about the CV pandemic and figuring out what it means, and I've been very disappointed in the response of the Trump administration at mitigating the effects of CV. I think it might be helpful to share some takes that are more pessimistic than what seems to be being communicated.
So I thought it would be productive to start a discussion thread, as well as a share the resources that have had the most impact on my thinking and behaviour. Please don't trust me, and do your own reading and thinking and listen to the experts. The epidemiologists, doctors, and public health experts are very sharp.
I'll try and keep it to 4 things that are fairly brief reads, I'm sure the community will add more this thread can function partly as an aggregator.
The future: This medium article is written by a non expert, but I find that while the arguments go out on a bit of an epistemic limb, they're overall pretty persuasive and don't contradict what I've read from experts: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
Now: This is the consensus best website for getting up to the minute data: https://worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Safety: Lots of good safety resources, the CDC is obviously well respected and sets reasonable guidelines: https://cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/prevention.html?CDCAArefVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fabout%2Fprevention-treatment.html
Hope (esp for developing world): It seems entirely possible temperature and humidity are big factors in R0, but this is highly speculative. Article is easy reading for something academic:
· Mar 8
Source: “Temperature and latitude analysis to predict potential spread and seasonality for COVID-19”, by Mohammad M. Sajadi, MD; Parham Habibzadeh, MD; Augustin Vintzileos, PhD; Shervin Shokouhi, MD; Fernando Miralles-Wilhelm, PhD; Anthony Amoroso, MD. https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=091071099092098096101097074089104068104013035023062021010031112088025099126064001093097030102106046016114116082016095089113023126034089078012119081090111118122007110026000085123071022022127025026080005029001020025126022000066075021086079031101116126112&EXT=pdf