BB: 21,116 (Hero)
In game, I thought this would be a decent FD combo to raise since I do not block any of his broadway bluffs that are barreling turn plus I have zero showdown unimproved. Looking back, I am not sure the portion of his range he is folding is worth taking this huge variance heavy line, not to mention we could get shoved on and have to fold our draw. Is there any upside to raising the turn with such a strong draw?
Assuming he gets to the river with 91 combos (KK+, 99-88, 33, AdKd, AhKh, AcKc, AsQs, KdQd, KhQh, KcQc, AsJs, QsJs, AsTs, QsTs, JsTs, As9s, Kh9h, Kc9c, Qs9s, Ts9s, Kd8d, Kh8h, Kc8c, As5s, As4s, 5s4s, As3s, As2s, AKo, K9o-K8o),
and assuming he folds everything except AA, KK, 99, 88, 33, K9s, K9o, K8s, K8o (36 combos), we have 36/91 = he calls 39,56 % of the time.
Our bet only needs to work 48% of the time to be profitable.
As played in the turn, would you rather choose a smaller river bet and target exclusively his missed FDs?