partypoker - 30000/60000 NL (8 max) - Holdem - 5 players
SB: 52.14 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 20)
BB: 30.46 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 40.00, 3Bet Preflop: 100.00, Hands: 5)
UTG: 10.09 BB (VPIP: 18.18, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 57)
CO: 23.51 BB (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 26.25, 3Bet Preflop: 10.71, Hands: 94)
Hero (BTN): 15.3 BB
Final Table of $27.50 Bounty Hunter
5 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 2.12 BB) Hero has Ks Jc with 15.17BB remaining.
My bounty was 3rd out of 5 remaining
is this a shove, yes or no?
When I put this into ICMizer it shows that I make 0.75% profit and that my bust probability is 9.61%.
If I give put their reshoving ranges to 22+/A7s+/K9s+QTs+J10s+ATo+/KQo I have 39.83% equity, however, that is against their reshoving range, they do plenty of folding as this equals to about 18.85%.
So assuming that these ranges are correct, which I do think they are. I am getting called roughly 37.70% of the time(roughly I know). So I'm making 2.12 62.3% of the time and risking 15.17BB to obtain that, whereas I'm called I have 39.83% equity to win 32.46 (disregarding for the moment the possibility where the SB shoves and the BB overcalls, which I think is unlikely due to ICM considerations for both players)
So the overall conclusion (in my opinion) is:
62.3% I can steal the pot and win 2.12BB = +3.4 BB/100
37.70% I get called and have 39.83% to win 32.46BB = -2.25BB/100
so out of 100%:
62.3% +3.4 = 5.45
37.70% -2.25 = -5.68
So in these raw calculations (which I am not 100% sure about that I did correctly, but I do believe so and this excludes ICM but I do not think that that is super important as we are not in a position to fold to ladder up and this is a bounty, so even less fold equity as stacks get shallower) it seems that I made a losing shove.
HOWEVER, after these long calculations, what do you guys think? both about the calculations and about my thinking and my potential shove?
are you shoving here?
Hope this was an interesting read and perhaps you can respond with your views
thanks for reading people :)