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$530 WCOOP Exploitative river sizing choice

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Posted by posted in High Stakes

$530 WCOOP Exploitative river sizing choice

Blinds: t500/t1,000 (9 Players) MP: 84,995
UTG+1: 19,526
MP+1: 69,827
MP+2: 45,059
CO: 68,833
BN: 47,850
SB: 41,947
BB: 35,757 (Hero)
UTG: 44,980
MP+1 is on the tighter side. MP+2 is a regular but quite a losing one on the past year and a half. No particular reads has been playing quite standard so far. 20 vpip, 18 rfi, 0 3bet over 108 hands.
Preflop (1,500) Hero is BB with 8 K
3 folds, MP+1 raises to 2,300, MP+2 calls 2,300, CO calls 2,300, BN calls 2,300, SB folds, Hero calls 1,300
Not amazing hand multiway but getting 9-1.
Flop (13,125) 8 6 3
Hero checks, MP+1 checks, MP+2 checks, CO checks, BN checks
Turn (13,125) 8 6 3 8
Hero bets 5,900, MP+1 folds, MP+2 calls 5,900, CO folds, BN folds
River (24,925) 8 6 3 8 T
Hero bets 6,000, MP+2 calls 6,000
My main concern is what sizing I want to pick OTR and this is highly connected to my turn strategy.

For simplicity given that on sundays likely there is 10+ tables running I probably play two different strategies OTT. One that is a large bet sizing with 8x+ balanced with high equity bluffs and one that is prob A6+ with lower equity bluffs that contain good card removal effects against their calling ranges.

My first thought OTR is that I am not bluffing turn quite often since the pot is 5-ways and the fold equity seems to be low to quite low so I should pick a small to medium sizing strategy. That is true for most general strategies but the pot is already too large, 13bb is 30% of my stack and I should go for it more often than not since the board is dynamic but it doesn't hit very well players ranges.

I can have all the nut combos and high equity bluffs when they mostly can't specially considering flop the texture in which I expect any overpair+ to fast play the board often as 80-85%+ of the time so I am rarely beat by the river. At the time I didn't consider my hand as strong as this and I want my river value bet region to go from 99+ so picking all in sizing shouldn't perform as well as a smaller sizing when MP+2 range is very weak by the river. Even though this is a $530 it plays more like a $55 (specially on early stages) given the amount of recreationals playing, so almost every regular wouldn't be thrilled to bluff catch against all in size on this texture when I can have a very large portion of offsuit 8x.

Thanks in advance.

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