Posting this HH for a friend so forgive me if I'm light on details.
Day 2 of 2, down to the final two tables. Top heavy payout structure with about $25k to first and current payout about $1500.
Level 6k/12k with 12k BB ante
Hero in BB with ~350k holding ATs
CO opens to 26k
BU flats 26k
Let's assume they both have similar or covering stacks since I don't know for sure. I do know from experience that stacks are usually pretty tight at this stage in these events. CL might top out around 100bb but probably more like 60bb and many people in the 15-30bb range.
It looks like a juicy spot to 3bet jam but I'm not sure. Clearly want to 3bet/GII with better aces like AQ+ but what about AT and AJ? I feel like AT and AJ (both suited or non) are too strong to 3bet/Fold and too weak to 3bet/GII. Do these hands therefore become 3bet jam candidates?
Reasons I think it's a good squeeze spot:
-Opener will be wide on average
-Caller will be more narrow but folding a lot (looks like small-mid PPs and suited broadways in general)
-Fold equity given we're just under 30bbs
-Increase stack by ~ 23% if it gets through
-Also considering we are 8 handed (with BBA) at the final two tables, we should probably lean towards being more aggressive than passive.
Thoughts? ATs just seems borderline to me since it's a hand we want to see a flop with. I just think this jam will get through often enough and the few times it doesn't we still have ~30% equity vs anything that calls.