A5s Reshove Deep in Ceratops

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

A5s Reshove Deep in Ceratops

Blinds: t2,500/t5,000 (8 Players) BN: 77portuga77: 263,083
SB: Amauri Lara: 50,786
BB: Ganjabriel: 97,573 (Hero)
UTG: eljefe009: 120,926
UTG+1: dachmarder: 243,891
MP: gruene materie: 247,901
MP+1: mick_allin: 171,972
CO: boda777: 56,482
Preflop (7,500) Ganjabriel is BB with 5 A
2 folds, gruene materie raises to 10,000, 4 folds, Ganjabriel raises to 96,973 and is all in

There's 22 left, Sunday Ceratops on FTP
The player how opens is playing very LAG
I run the EV calc but dont know if its good. Please take a look at it:

I give him a OR tighter than i think: Opens 20%, 44+, A5s+, K9s+, QTs+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KJo+
Calls 11% 44+, A9s+, KTs+, QJs, AJo+, KJo+

(My hand A5s vs his calling range wins 39%)

So he is calling 50% and folding 50% Preflop

EV = %he callsx(win - loose against his range) + FE
EV = 0.5x ( 0.39x200000 - 0.61x92000) + 0.5x(22000)
EV = 0.5x (78000 - 56120 ) + 11000
EV = 10940 + 11000
EV = 21940

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