$15 rebuy. Prizes $400, $250, $150, $100. Blinds 2000/4000/500. HERO UTG 41K, CO 44K, BTN 125K, SB 11K, BB 6K before posting. BTN has been playing well and aggressive with stack. SB and BB appear to have been playing too tight. Holdem Resources says push 9%.
I actually had AKo and limped. What happened is the big stack shoved QJo, the BB called, and I called. The only way I don't cash is if the BB wins and BTN is 2nd. That is what happened, as BB made a straight with 53o and a J hit. However, there was about a 13% chance of that happening given their ranges.
I am pretty sure I had to call once I call and they both push. Obviously, I need to fold to a push from either bigger stack if the blinds both fold, but the BB isn't folding often. I guess I was thinking that if I push I drive out the big stack and the big stack is almost always pushing if folded to him and the SB is almost always pushing if folded to him. Then I saw the 3-way allin situation would make it difficult for me to bust. I also thought that if I pushed and either bigger stack calls, the BB would usually fold, which was bad for me. I figured that there was less chance of me busting if I only got allin 3-way against a much shorter stack.
Did the BTN misread the situation and not understand how strong I was likely to be? Did I misread how much the BTN should want to get me to fold, as continuing the bubble was very good for him?