Call or fold our Top set vs Vilain ReShove

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

Call or fold our Top set vs Vilain ReShove

Hero (UTG): 37.92 BB
UTG+1: 31.58 BB (VPIP: 21.43, PFR: 7.14, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)
MP: 59.8 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)
CO: 36.36 BB (VPIP: 19.80, PFR: 16.48, 3Bet Preflop: 8.11, Hands: 102)
BTN: 27.06 BB (VPIP: 5.41, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 37)
SB: 48.36 BB (VPIP: 25.24, PFR: 21.24, 3Bet Preflop: 9.52, Hands: 215)
BB: 28.92 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 7.14, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)

7 players post ante of 0.12 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.34 BB) Hero has Qs Kd
Hero raises to 3 BB, UTG+1 calls 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 2.5 BB, fold

Flop : (10.84 BB, 3 players) Jc Kh 8c
SB checks, Hero bets 5.08 BB, fold, SB calls 5.08 BB

Turn : (21 BB, 2 players) Kc
SB checks, Hero bets 12.04 BB, SB raises to 40.16 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 17.68 BB and is all-in

River : (80.44 BB, 2 players) 5s

SB shows 7c Ac (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 60%, Flop 44%, Turn 77%)

Hero shows Qs Kd (Three of a Kind, Kings)
(Pre 40%, Flop 56%, Turn 23%)

SB wins 80.44 BB

So always a tough spot with a set on a flush board, do you call or fold?

So, PF Vilain can call with many hands.
On flop, when he x/c I think he can hold: Kx,Jx,8x, - 88,JJ,TT,99 - T9,TQ, - Ac* - cc.

When the turn come, and he x/r, does he always beats me? Does he always hold: cc, 88, JJ, KJ, K8, KA?
Can he semi-bluff with some AcQ, AcJ, and some worst K*c?

On the turn, the pot odds are the 22%. If he always beat me on the turn with a flush or full house, I have 20% equity, but if he can semi-bluff here, I have 32%....

So, after debating with myself, I think I should have fold in this spot. But, do you think its always a fold or can we call in some exceptional situation....

Thx for you help!

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