Help Me Check the Math on a Live MTT Spot made by a RIO Pro

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Help Me Check the Math on a Live MTT Spot made by a RIO Pro

$3500 Live MTT, 250/500/50 -- Button (20K eff) opens 1200, sb (pro) 3200, button 10K, SB flats JJ w/ intention of stacking off on non AK boards.

Analysis:
Button is very AK heavy so assuming 100% AK and a few different weights on QQ+ (i.e. 40,50,60,100% in model). This situation just occured and I'm trying to calculate the EV of the play. In calculating the EV, I want to take into account preflop decision into the postflop decision (i.e. clearly w/ all the dead money in pre this is going to be very +EV post).

Methodology:
I used pro poker tools to look at interactive hand stats on the flop and see how often A/K flops. Then I separate EV calcs into 3 different buckets of (a) Fold A/K flops, (b) JJ vs overpairs on low boards, (c) JJ vs AK on low boards

I was wondering if anyone could check out my analysis and see if I did this correctly. If there is a better way (i.e. software) to do this analysis please let me know. I've attached a picture of the model I put together and also have the excel file w/ calcs if anyone wants that. Additionally I am unsure if the EV of folding pre should be 0 or -3200 (when comparing to other options of shoving or getting in post).

Without getting too deep into the actual play, my opinion of the spot is getting in 40bb w/ JJ vs this type of range while slightly +EV is a mistake in a tourney where you hold a significant edge and a structure of 60m levels. On the flip side this pro is definitely a better poker player than I am so I am trying to see where he is coming from and learn from it. Hopefully after this analysis I can invite him in to comment.

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