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Tough River Spot 3 handed in FTP 1k vs NSB

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Tough River Spot 3 handed in FTP 1k vs NSB

Full Tilt Poker Game #34218692920: $1K Saturday (266811729), Table 8 - NL Hold'em - 2500/5000 Ante 600 - 20:00:42 ET - 2014/05/10

Seat 4: paulgees81 (319,552)

Seat 7: YRWTHMELTHR (337,987)

Seat 8: NeverScaredB (260,461)

paulgees81 antes 600

YRWTHMELTHR antes 600

NeverScaredB antes 600

YRWTHMELTHR posts the small blind of 2,500

NeverScaredB posts the big blind of 5,000

The button is in seat #4

*** HOLE CARDS ***

Dealt to YRWTHMELTHR [Kd 9c]

paulgees81 folds

YRWTHMELTHR raises to 15,000

NeverScaredB calls 10,000

*** FLOP *** [8d 7h Ks] (Total Pot: 31,800, 2 Players)

YRWTHMELTHR has 15 seconds left to act

YRWTHMELTHR bets 20,000

NeverScaredB has 15 seconds left to act

NeverScaredB calls 20,000

*** TURN *** [8d 7h Ks] [9h] (Total Pot: 71,800, 2 Players)

YRWTHMELTHR has 15 seconds left to act

YRWTHMELTHR has requested TIME

YRWTHMELTHR bets 45,000

NeverScaredB has 15 seconds left to act

NeverScaredB has requested TIME

NeverScaredB calls 45,000

*** RIVER *** [8d 7h Ks 9h] [Ac] (Total Pot: 161,800, 2 Players)

YRWTHMELTHR has 15 seconds left to act

YRWTHMELTHR


FWIW I should have bet 50k ott, that way stacks otr would exactly psb, as it is NSB has about 170k left OTR, I think this spot is quite tough. I'll give my thoughts. I have been opening extremely wide into NSB's BB, mainly because when we are 5-6 handed there were a few short stacks and I assumed NSB would play tighter out of the BB because of ICM. He has been defending the BB extremely wide, I'm not sure if he has hands like k3o pf here, but it certainly wouldn't shock me. I also don't expect him to be going super light for value pf and he can def have KQ KJ KT.


I think NSB has a set, almost 0% of the time. I'm not sure how we plays his two pair/straights OTT, presumably he would raise them some % of the time. I don't think he has 56o pf or t6o but he can def have 56s and t6s.


OTR I think his range consists of Kx, Turned one pair + straight draw, 8xhh, some slow played nuts, and some slowplayed two pair. The only two pair I lose to is A8 and A9 and A7, which I expect him to fold ott almost always unless they picked up a draw. I suppose he could also have AT.


Anyways I guess what I'm curious is about are


1. Should I bet or c/c? My thoughts are checking may induce him to bluff his midpairs, but if I check I also let him showdown his Kx without facing a bet which is quite bad for me. 


2. If I bet should I pick a size less than allin? Theoretically its nice bet bet shove, here but practically it may be better to bet 50k, get sigh called by Kx, and if I get shoved on probably fold reluctantly, but consider calling for sure vs a player like NSB.

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