10NL - Hand analysis by Flopzilla

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10NL - Hand analysis by Flopzilla

Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players) BN: $18.03
SB: $10.00 (Hero)
BB: $10.40
UTG: $12.31
MP: $14.65
CO: $32.22
Preflop ($0.15) Hero is SB with A Q
2 folds, CO raises to $0.30, BN folds, Hero raises to $1.10, BB folds, CO calls $0.80
Flop ($2.30) 2 J 3
Hero bets $1.10, CO calls $1.10
Turn ($4.50) 2 J 3 2
Hero checks, CO checks
River ($4.50) 2 J 3 2 8
Hero checks, CO bets $3.01, Hero folds
Final Pot CO wins $4.30
Rake is $0.20

Villain is unknown
On the flop, I was not sure whether I have to Cbet or not, so I reviewed by Flopzilla.

Here is villain's range that I assume. I set up his range little bit wider than Pokersnowie's range
It is very dry board and seems like it is good for my range, and my AQo blocks his AJ and QJ, so I bet otf.
And I assume that Villain would call with two overcards and any pair on the flop vs my cbet. (Since it is 3 bet pot, I think villain would not call with backdoor flush draw
As you see, sum of two overcards and any pair in his range is 71.8%, so he would fold 28.2%. I cbet 1/2 pot size, so I need to make him fold at least 33% so it is not auto-profit spot.

Turn card was 2s which is blank.

I set up that villain would call with pocket pairs worse than Top pair 75% of the times and call with FD, Top pair and better and the sum of them is 58.4%. (if I assume that the villain would call 100% of pocket pairs worse than TP, it shows 68.5%)
Therefore, if I 1/2 pot size c bet again, it is profitable play, so I think my checking back on the turn was bad play.
I should fire again.

How do you think about my hand analysis?
By the way, is this right way to study, hand review by Flopzilla? It is my first time to review the hand by Flopzilla :)

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