New to the table, less than 15 minutes in. Prior action by myself is I opened the cutoff to $10, got called by both blinds and didn't cbet a J74ss board in position, folding the turn. Another hand I called in the big blind closing the action four ways and folded the flop. My opponent in this hand looks like a serious player, and at the time I believed to be a pro waiting on a seat change to the bigger game. He's a white guy in his late 30's, wearing a hoodie, talked about someone else at the table starting to get bored and opening up their turn continuing ranges. It was something I heard while buying my chips at the cashier. He straddles first to act to $6 at an 8 handed table.
Two recreational players call. One is an Asian woman in her early 40's. She asked about the rake structure on a pot she had won, leading me to think she would play logically, trying to see cheap flops and make hands. She looks like a limp/call 45o type of person, not a limp/call K3s type of person. She has $300 in front. The other caller is social with the guy I believe to be a professional. They come off as friends, so I assume he plays here most of the week. He's probably 50 and has close to $1,000.
Small blind folds. I have KcKx and raise to $30 off a $290 stack. Straddler has yet to look at his cards. When he does, he holds for a few seconds before calling, almost careful not to show much of anything. The callers fold.
I put the straddlers range on suited broadway, maybe AQ+, maybe TT/JJ. It doesn't make a ton of sense for me to think that this player definitely cold calls with all his pocket pairs or other implied odds kind of hands. I haven't seen much, so it won't take much at all for me to disregard this read, but give all the things pointing to a serious thinking player, and few pointing to recreational, I can't see him calling knowing I have a $280 stack, even with the two original limpers.
($66 after rake, $250 effective) Qx6c5c
I think he'll continue with AQs, KQs, QJs, AJc, AQc, TT/JJ. That's 20 combos. Hands that will continue on most turns are AQs, KQs, QJs, AJc, AQc, which is 8 combos.
($144, $210 effective) Qs6c5c9d
I believe we're in the 8 combo world and plan to shove all but Q or A rivers, assuming one pair will call me even on a club river given the size of the pot and my bet size. I'm not really sure if that means ck/folding for 1/3 pot or not, because I don't know how confident I'm supposed to be with my ranging.
($344, $110 effective) Qs6c5c9dTc
All in, call.
Now, I'm questioning whether or not I should bet closer to pot on the flop, as I don't think any of the hands I listed will respond elastically. That helps me shove all in on the turn for a pot sized bet. I'm wrestling with this because maybe QX makes a hero fold, leaving me to be called by only AQcc, AJcc, both of which are only losing about $25 in EV.
Most of the live poker I play is deep stacked, even with straddle, so being only 50bb's I'm not stoked or sure. I'd love some input on which of the two lines to take.