SB: $393.94 (Hero)
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, BN raises to $4, Hero raises to $14, BB folds, BN calls $10
I probably played horriblely bad vs this villain but still want to hear some thoughts.
villain is a reg running 25/19/6.5 btn steal 63% fold to 3b 77%.
flop looks like a standard bet given we have Ah, but could be argue for a check since his fold to 3b is pretty high.
and his fold to flop cb is 67% so I expect him to fold a lot.
Turn I still like betting for value/protection. and he raises. I'm not sure how often he is flatting a set on the flop given the flush draw, I usually would just fold to this kind of passive player but somehow decided to call for &$(#@$ reason. after tanking for a while.
River it's actually a good card for us, I don't see many flushes in villain's range as we have Ah and Kh got rivered, and we could have all the flushes given that we called the turn. So I checked expecting him to check back most of his range sometime including his sets, as jamming sets would be pretty thin on the river vs our calling range ott.
But he quickly jams, I just really can't put him on a flush here as he seem pretty passive so I don't really expect him to semi-bluff raise the turn. and I don't think passive guy could jam that river with a set vs hero's range which have more nutted flush than he does.