25nl: thin value raise with TPTK
Posted by MatoStar
Posted by
MatoStar
posted in
Low Stakes
25nl: thin value raise with TPTK
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (9 Players)
MP: $36.60
UTG+1: $14.05
MP+1: $22.17
MP+2: $73.45 (Hero)
CO: $10.55
BN: $27.18
SB: $15.90
BB: $26.78
UTG: $8.99
UTG+1: $14.05
MP+1: $22.17
MP+2: $73.45 (Hero)
CO: $10.55
BN: $27.18
SB: $15.90
BB: $26.78
UTG: $8.99
22/8 252
3b: 0
FCB 41
kind of a nitfish guy
3b: 0
FCB 41
kind of a nitfish guy
Preflop
($0.35)
Hero is MP+2 with
K
A
, , ,
sizing it up since most players are tight 3bettors and rather call preflop
Flop
($1.84)
2
4
9
, ,
Turn
($3.00)
2
4
9
K
,
no draws, no need for protection.. raise would kinda isolate ourselves vs really strong range and probably fold out all his possible bluffs (like JT,QT,QJ)
River
($5.86)
2
4
9
K
2
, ,
Vs a smaller sizing I would be definitely raising this river. Against a larger one its probably much closer. The river decreases his 22 combos or maybe even K2s. Okay so, his value range is contained from 22,44,99 (some of them might be raised OTF), K9s (1combo), K4s (if called pre and only 1combo), AK ( if not 3bet pre) and then KQs,KJs,KTs and questionable KQo,KJo,KTo type of hands.
From that my main question is if he calls at least one hand from KQo,KJo,KTo OTF.. I guess it should be enough to allow us to value bet this river profitably.. dont expect many folds vs that smaller river sizing.
If he is bluffing, he is almost always folding them to a raise.
From that my main question is if he calls at least one hand from KQo,KJo,KTo OTF.. I guess it should be enough to allow us to value bet this river profitably.. dont expect many folds vs that smaller river sizing.
If he is bluffing, he is almost always folding them to a raise.
KQs,KJs,KTs = 6combos
22,44,99,K9s,K4s = 9combos
So we need at least 3 combos of KQo to be taking this line (probably even more since KTs is kinda close)
There might be some possibility of KK and AA, but I think that he would 3b them pre even if his stats after 252 are saying something else (imo the sample is not too large, to make such a big assumption)
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