25NLz: Check-shove bluff on river. Punt?
Posted by asdf321
Posted by
asdf321
posted in
Low Stakes
25NLz: Check-shove bluff on river. Punt?
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players)
BN: $49.98
SB: $25.85
BB: $25.50
UTG: $30.28
MP: $22.99
CO: $30.90 (Hero)
SB: $25.85
BB: $25.50
UTG: $30.28
MP: $22.99
CO: $30.90 (Hero)
Players in blinds are fairly timid. BTN (Villain) is a reg (25/16/47 over 140 hands)
Preflop
($0.35)
Hero is CO with
T
J
, , ,
Fairly standard open I think. Might even open J9o if players behind are tight.
Flop
($1.89)
4
T
K
, ,
we check entire range. check/raise with most strong hands (2 pairs and sets, AK probably mixed)
(Edit: Also check/raising a decent amount of drawish hands (straight draw, flush draw, backdoors))
(Edit: Also check/raising a decent amount of drawish hands (straight draw, flush draw, backdoors))
Turn
($3.07)
4
T
K
3
, ,
probably slightly close, maybe even losing. JT definitely is the worst hand we call (apart from Th8h, Th7h)
River
($7.65)
4
T
K
3
Q
, , ,
I've rolled fairly high on my RNG and JTo seems like a decent hand to check/shove.
Final Pot
CO wins $16.38
Rake is $0.77
Rake is $0.77
So is JdTh a good bluff on the river?
Positives: We block AJ, J9s, KT, TT (if he flats pre)
Negatives: We block heart flush draw and KJ which is probably folding
We dont have a lot of value here - KQ (9 combos), QQ (3 combos) which is 12 combos.
So with this raise size we should have about 7 bluffs in equilibrium. I think all JT without a heart are better which are 8 combos. So shoving JdTh would be overbluffing. Is this justified against pool? I dont know.
Would appreciate any help :)
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