[25NLZ] Here's another spew

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

[25NLZ] Here's another spew

Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players) BN: $43.18
SB: $19.24
BB: $22.99
UTG: $29.48
MP: $25.58 (Hero)
CO: $34.40
Hi guys, villain is a reg who always 3bet with enormous sizings, and his stats are 22/17/9.1 over 1.6K hands. : 4betting him a lot seems to be the right play.
Preflop ($0.35) Hero is MP with A 4
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.75, CO folds, BN raises to $3.00, 2 folds, Hero raises to $6.80, BN calls $3.80
Flop ($13.95) 2 J 5
Hero bets $3.50, BN calls $3.50
Turn ($20.95) 2 J 5 6
Hero checks, BN checks
I have plenty of other draws to shove OTT. I would x my aces, sometimes kings and shove Queens here.
River ($20.95) 2 J 5 6 9
Villain's range is uncapped , and I gave him this range in game: 100% of :JJ-TT,AhKh,AhQh, 64% of :KK+ 54% of :AKo, 84% of :QQ. These percentages are based on the fact that he would take another line with some of these holdings either pre or OTT.

So my point is that by shoving, we need him to fold about 42% of the time. If he folds his Ace highs and TT, that is the case. So should we bluff here?

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