Seems standard up until river. His range that gets to the river looks like AK, 8/9x, TT-JJ, maybe AQ/KQ sometimes (although i would expect most strong Qx to bet the turn) and also some Ax that is folding to any size bet.

Given, his range, he probably isn't betting river if checked to so prefer betting ourselves. In terms of sizing, I don't think he calls weak pairs vs 1/2 pot but might make a hero call vs blocker bet. However, we don't get here with a lot of value hands as I'm pretty much always betting 2 pair + on the turn. We get here with TT-JJ, probably AJs, KQs, AK and maybe 66-77. We could be turning the low pocket pairs and AJs into bluffs and value betting KQs and AK but our range does become quite face up with this small sizing.

When facing the raise, the only value combo that makes sense is KQ which he doesnt always have given the action on the flop and turn or maybe AK as a thin value raise. He could be turning his 8/9x and maybe TT-JJ into bluffs. We also don't really get here with any better hands to call (except KQs occasionally).

Does this make sense? Would you play this differently and how often do you think we are good on this river when facing a raise?