Live 1-3, Florida
loose bad recreational limps EP w 100bb
Unknown Recreational in mid 30's who seems to be limping more than raising makes it $15 in the HJ and has 200bb
Hero w JsJc and covering makes it $45 on the button
Folds to HJ who calls
About HJ's Range: I'm not certain here, but I think he has a tight range preflop, something like 99+(some smaller occasionally like 77 and 88, maybe 50% freq), AJo, KQ, ATs+, maybe sometimes things like JTs+ and T9s, and A9s, but dont think anything at a high frequency. He seems to be the type to massively overplay really strong hands and really big draws, and then play very passively everywhere else(so very polarized). So im thinking its possible that flatting pre is an option. Also dont know how much he will call a 3b with things like KQo and AJo.
Pot = $87
Hero bets $40
Pot = $167
Hero bets $62
He seems uncomfortable and verbally says to himself "Aces?" and reluctantly makes call.
River is 3d
Pot = $291
Stacks are around $450
So a few things. On the turn, I was thinking at the time that using a 1/3 sizing with my range made sense as the K doesn't really hit him(because I expect AK to fold the flop), and it hits me pretty hard with AK, AA, KK all in my range. With JJ specifically, I didn't want to bet very big either because I don't think he is opening all that wide, and I do think the value is pretty thin on the turn, because things like QQ are in his range, maybe some passively played AKcc, KQcc, and sets. However, I don't know exactly whats up with him and I can't just discredit things like ATs, JTs, AQcc etc, so I think we can still barrel the turn.
Looking back on it however, two things stand out in my mind
1) Because I expect him to be relatively tight here, maybe flatting actually becomes more of an option to play with the limper. However, I do expect his guy to still open things like KQo and AJo, and maybe 88+, and some suited broadways sometimes, and also play poorly in response(mostly passively), so I suppose reraising and taking down the flop alot or preflop or playing postflop isn't such a bad thing, rather than playing multiway alot
2) I think I should just barrel the river w the K coming in on the turn. At the time I just took my showdown for when he has hands like 88, TT, 9x or missed FD. But thinking now, because the K is so damn good for my range, and he will have 6 combos of QQ, and max 1-2 combos of Kx, I think we should just turn our range into a bluff, and it makes sense from a balance perspective as we will have AK(12), AA(6), KK(3), KQ(1), KJ(1) = 23 value combos. Means we can have around 9 bluffs at a 2/3 river bet size, so JJ makes 6, and then 98(1), T9(1), QJ(1), AT(1), is just about right. We might end up overbluffing here a little bit, but we can increase our river size a bit to adjust for that.
3) since we did choose a 1/3ish turn sizing however, and with the FD missing, I can see some players finding it suspicious and making some lighter calls, so maybe it isn't so bad to take this hand and check it back on the river. Had we found a more half pot or 2/3 turn barrel size, then it would make sense to barrel the river at a high freq.
I'm honestly still not super confident about this hand, so if anyone has some solid feedback it would be much appreciated.
more added on second thought:
Looking back around this hand, I think that betting the turn more around half might make more sense with my range, and then playing pretty aggressively on the river with missed draws, and given the extra information, JJ. However, I don't think in a vacuum that JJ is going to be very profitable at half pot turn sizing given the turn card, because I think we face a situation where villain doesnt really call us with worst hands.
His better hands here are QQ(6), KQcc(1), 99(1), 77(.5), AKcc(1), KTcc(1) = 10.5
Worst hands TT(6), 88(2), T9s(1), A9s(1), AQcc(1), QTcc(1) = 12
Hands that are worst that likely fold to any size turn bet: ATdd(1), JTdd(1), QTdd(1) = 3
There's definitely a margin of error here. Maybe hes a bit wider than I give him credit for, maybe he's much tighter. I guess from an exploitative standpoint, using a small turn sizing to deny equity and capture thin value makes sense. From a range balance perspective we want to bet a little bit bigger here. On the river, I suppose we can turn this into a bluff, but checking also seems okay too.