1 limp from super fishy asian woman $250
Unknown loose passive raise LJ to $10 w $270 effective
Hero raise AdKx to $30 covering
lady folds, PFR calls
Flop AATr (all ATs combos are blocked, and don't think he is raising ATo/calling it vs a 3b)
Pot = $60
Hero c-bets $20
Turn 2s (bringing BDFD)
Pot = $100
Hero bets $65
PFR goes all in for $239
If we give him 3 combos of TT, and the pot is $100+$65+$239+$174(our call), our price is 578/174 3.32:1 or = 30%
Given these numbers, he only needs 1.3 hands to make this a call 1.3/4.3 = 30%
I expect most live players to call all AK combos preflop. If he has 3 combos of AK, and jams half on the turn, and we are splitting the pot thats, 1.5/2 = .75 worth of a hand, meaning he only needs less than 1 combo of a worst hand(sporadically played AQ comes to mind) for this to be a call.
This is more just to illustrate my own logic and fact check myself and see if anyone has anything to add/can point out flaws in my process.
The villain did make a slight sigh, but wasn't obnoxious about it, and barely audible, but I did pick up on it but easily missed. I tend to think that when someone express displease and then takes a hyper aggressive action, that this signifies incredible strength, because it doesn't really make sense. If you are actually upset then why are you putting all your money in lol. Just a side thing I considered. Another thing was that he raised to $10, and wonder if that ever could signify him actually holding TT, but probably cant put too much weight on this either.
Anyways, standard call or is anyone ever folding here?