Live 1-3, $500 Cap, Florida
An Unknown Reg to me raises HJ to $20 $500eff.. (I have a friend in game who is also a reg and I have insight that in his words this guy is a "standard Reg". I didn't see his name on 2-5 List either, so maybe is more a Live 1-3 Grinder and just okay in skill level. Have no idea specifics.)
Hero CO AsAh $450 eff raises to $60
Folds to HJ who calls
Pot = $123
Hero Bets $40
Pot = $203
HJ bets $150
Basically, I am wondering about turn check, and if ever Flop can even be checked.
I think it's likely given the dynamics, this guys range will be super narrow preflop. Something like 99-QQ, AKo, maybe AKs given he doesn't know me yet and a live player is 3betting his HJ raise, so maybe he defaults to flatting pre, and TBH I would think it's pretty okay and correct in alot of live dynamics. I'm not sure AJs or KQs gets flatted pre( I think these should be 4b before flatted here, as I am going to be kinda narrow here, but who knows just how aware this guy is, maybe he calls more than I anticipate because he is risking 40 to win 120, getting 1:2.)
So his range looks like to me 99-QQ, AK, and maybe 1 combo of AQs, and maybe AJ or KQ, but not sure these are even in there.
So after we bet flop, maybe he flop raises some sets, QQ(3), and 99(1) for 4 combos in flatting range. So on turn, hands we get value from are like AQs(1), maybe KQs(0-3, lets call it 1), AJcc(.5), AKcc(.5), so maybe a questionable 3 combos. So all in all, I really like my turn check back.
On river, I guess we just have a call. My assumptions can certainly be wrong on turn, so with that combined with worst value hands like AQs from him, he needs very few bluffs/worst hands to show up here for us to have a profitable call. I think he folds JTs pre for example, but maybe he vpips these, or AJcc, or even AcKx vs the small cbet.
Had it checked to me on river, I think the best sizing is likely something like 30%, as alot of his range after a check is likely like TT-JJ, and alot of his strong hands prob bet themselves.
It "feels" so tight to check back here, but I think it makes sense logically and is correct. Anyone disagree or have anything to add?