SB: Arboraeer: $1201.53
BB: demondoink: $947.64 (Hero)
UTG: miaozhuang: $331.60
MP: MissOracle: $525.21
CO: OtB_RedBaron: $590.52
OtB_RedBaron wins and shows a flush, King high.
OtB_RedBaron wins $1180.54
Rake is $3.00
okay, so let's completely ignore the flop/turn because they are standard. I can sometimes xr the flop but mostly calling this hand as the Qx turn is going to be a high frequency bet for IP so I cooler him when this turn card comes.
on the river IP should be very cautious when betting as my weakest calling hand by the river (on this exact card) is going to be 2 pairs. and I will have all 6x and 4x of clubs. he will also not be betting all of his A high FD's on the flop as he used a larger sizing (thus is not cbetting at 100% frequency) and, as a result, these hands are going to be doing a decent amount of checking. so I can discount a decent amount of Axcc. as far as Kxcc I block both KQcc and K4cc, which are almost always going to be taking this line. he can obv have 87cc as well, and occasionally a weaker flush such as 65cc (but I think this will be doing some checking on both the flop and especially on the turn.)
so I don't lose to a ton of combo's, but the problem is that I don't think he is going to be using this sizing for either his sets/2 pairs. so even although my hand looks extremely strong vs his river range, vs his river betting range I think that it is very close between jamming/just calling. I was thinking always jam Kxcc+, so this hand was borderline. vs some fish or random reg it's obv a very obvious jam as they are gonna mis-size other value regions and bet/call too wide. but vs OTB I think he is clearly smart enough to identify this as a very good river for the BB, and as a result should be very cautious about using big bets.
fwiw I am thinking that maybe he made a slight mistake, and that he should have one sizing on this river, in order to protect his sets/2 pairs vs river x jams. and guarantee that I jam with a flush vs the smaller sizing and don't just call vs the larger one. so maybe he was just exploiting me and thought that 500z wouldn't pick up on this and knew that he was gonna stack a flush anyways, and wanted to maximise vs 2 pairs etc. or perhaps it is optimal to have multiple sizing's on this exact river. personally I would just have one, but i'm gonna PIO this hand to find out.
just wanted some opinions. on the river, jam or just call vs the GOAT?