Villain is a drunk regular I presume as he was able to keep reloading and kept saying he would crush me if he was sober. We've been having a good time gambling it up and messing around in the chat etc, and by this point I have some pretty solid reads as we're about 300 hands in.

I included his HUD stats in the pic at the bottom of the thread. Most notably, he has been opening 95% of his buttons and calling 91% of my 3bets. Because of this I have been 3betting large to $6.50 and strictly for value. Also noteworthy, is his 3bet which is 48% and he has been making it $5-$6 vs my min raise. Because of this I have opened tight from my button and was only opening 50% of my hands and calling a lot in position.

I call preflop. A little loose but he's not been making my life too hard OOP as he has been playing his hands pretty face up.

I think I was going to go for a large check raise here. If he made a cbet I was probably going to raise to about $20 and then shove turn. He hasn't really been looking at the actual numbers of how big my raises have been so as long as it's not "all in" he's been calling with any piece, any draw, gutshots, and A high. If he had an 8 here or something he was probably in the mood to play for stacks with the gutshot.

Unfortunately, he checks back.

I lead for value and then he raises me. Villain has been calling with top pair but he has never shown this type of raising aggression on any turn before. In the chat, he wrote *** KT and then raised big. He is capable of checking KT on the flop as he could try to slow play top pair. Against anyone else, we can expect a top pair to cbet this flop but I give villain credit for checking back top pair. When it comes to the turn, he seems to really like the K. I know we shouldn't wait too much into what he said in chat, but I honestly think we can give more weight to a better two pair in this spot. Because villain has been:
1. Passive. So far I've only seen him raise the nuts. He calls with all draws and top pair and only raises nutted hands.
2. Villain says his hand in the chat. I'm assuming he was happy to get KT, and I think I can actually trust him here and think he might have been drunk enough to actually tell me his hand.
3. I know it's sort of a level, but he's practically never bluffed me and I think for him to actually go to the effort to size out a raise against me shows a great degree of strength. He could also have slow played sets, flopped straight (slowplay), turned straight, and KT. I think folding here is OK as we have such a huge edge against villain and I think I can find better spots to stack off against him.

What do you guys think? I'm I leveling myself here? The pot is just really small and I don't want to get it in as a dog when I can just wait until a better spot (like when I get top pair and bet 3 streets with it) and he will call down with any piece. Basically, because of my read that he calls with any pair, any draw and A high, and only raises nutted hands I decide to lay this one down vs. villain.

Cheers,
Mush