50Z river decision with 2pair

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

50Z river decision with 2pair

Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (6 Players) BN: $66.15
SB: $79.13
BB: $103.52 (Hero)
UTG: $23.25
MP: $88.11
CO: $56.46
CO is a 4 tabling reg. 23/18 over 189 hands, 3bet 11, RFI 30% from CO over 20 hands. WTSD 41, W$SD 33, WWSF 45
Preflop ($0.75) Hero is BB with Q J
2 folds, CO raises to $1.25, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.75
Flop ($2.75) K 7 J
Hero checks, CO bets $2.00, Hero calls $2.00
Turn ($6.75) K 7 J Q
Hero checks, CO bets $4.29, Hero calls $4.29
River ($15.33) K 7 J Q 2
Hero checks, CO bets $12.76, Hero folds

Tanked for a while and timed out on the river but thought this was quite close in game. I was planning on the turn to be calling river up to 2/3p on good runnouts and this river is a total brick.

He can have the missed straight draws and flush draws as bluffs but don't think he is value betting worse here. I'd also get here with AT and quite a few better 2 pairs. Not really liking my blockers either and would prefer to bluff catch with a hand like KT instead. I ran the hand through GTO+ and it came up as QJo being close to neutral EV and that is even with IP barreling with a lot of low pairs and turning 7x into bluffs.

Vs this guy who seems on the tightish side and knowing that population will likely underbluff this spot for this sizing, can we make a fold?

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