I open to 25 in late position w/ A8s.
donk (sb) calls. he plays around 50% VPIP. huge calling station post as well. he frequently bets when shown weakness by opponents. but never saw him overbet or go all-in. thats whats scaring me.
unknown bb calls as well. pot: 80
flop: Q-8-6 (rainbow).
I cbet (35), donk calls. unknown folds.
turn: 3. check/check.
he quickly shoves about 125% pot-size (200) all-in.
I really want to hero-call him. given his massive vpip, i feel i am right the needed 35 to 38% or whatever. here's why:
he probbly doesnt do this with mediocre Q. premium Q he doesn't have often given his vpip: also, he probably doesnt quickly (over)shove top pair top kicker.
he doesnt often have a 6. he wouldnt play like this with a 6.
so not many value hands.
i feel i can't fold given the odds to a 50% vipip-donk that can't represent having me beat and tells me a story i can't believe 65% of the time.
problem: not many missed bluffs either...