99 in 3-bet pot on paired board with flush OTR

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99 in 3-bet pot on paired board with flush OTR

Blinds: $0.02/$0.05 (6 Players) UTG: $6.35
MP: $5.68 (Hero)
CO: $10.24
BN: $3.51
SB: $5.00
BB: $11.70
SB is VPIP: 28, PFR: 19, 3B: 2, AF: 3.0, CB: 44, FCB: 88, Hands: 189
Preflop ($0.07) Hero is MP with 9 9
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.15, 2 folds, SB raises to $0.50, BB folds, Hero calls $0.35
Flop ($1.05) Q 7 Q
SB bets $0.65, Hero calls $0.65
Turn ($2.35) Q 7 Q 2
SB checks, Hero checks
River ($2.35) Q 7 Q 2 8
SB checks, Hero checks

I already had a fair bit of discussion about this hand over on 2+2. But I'd like to get some more feedback. I'm wondering about one alternative line in particular.

First a few thoughts on how I judge villain. While the sample size is too small to read much into the 3bet stat, the overall picture (3bet + VP/PFR gap) makes it likely that villain uses a rather value-oriented, linear 3-betting range. Even from the SB. Say JJ+, AK, and maybe AQs. Also, he's pretty straight-forward post-flop (CB, FCB).

The line I wonder about is overbetting the river. Once villain checks OTR, I think his range is very SDV-heavy but never nutted, say JJ+ w/o QQ. I assume that most AK turn give-ups - especially those with a heart - would bet OTR. So, once villain checks I think we are pretty much always beat with our nines. Also, we are at the bottom of our range OTR and have more flushes (and maybe queens!) in our range. While I don't know if that villain type folds an overpair on that board, betting big/shoving should make for a rather tough call. Also, we can rep flushes pretty well (and since villain never has a queen/FH, I'd comfortably play them in the same way).

I kinda like this line as I don't assume our SDV to ever be good here against that villain type. Any takes?

(In-game I didn't take that line and expected to see AK quite often but after thinking about it more, I'd actually eliminate at least 7 combos from his checking-range OTR)

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