I have some questions about exploitative plays and the risk off getting exploited back.
So let's assume we have an autoprofit spot, for example that our opponent is folding to much, so all off our bluffs will be +EV in a vaccum.
Shall we then go for the 100% exploit?
- The merit i se is that we gain alot of EV with some trash hands that should not have buisness in bluffing.
- The problem tho, is that we can loose alot of EV in the future if we get detected with some crazy reckless bluffs.
I think the best way to go is to overbluff for sure, but don't use bluffs that looks too reckless so our opponent can/will start to adjust, because then suddenly our strategy can be sucidal, if he decide to start bluffcatching us a ton because he saw us with some reckless bluffs. And i dont think we want to be in such a levling wars?
There would be some exceptions there we probably want to exploit 100%, more likely this will happen in live games against people we wont see again, or against recrational players in some spots. But starting levling wars against regs in a game we play alot dosent seem to appealing?
Also another thing about absuing people 100%, is that they might notice, and fix leaks in their games and then we lost long term EV.
Another example would be if someone is not bluffing enough OTR and we got a bluffcatcher, we want to fold all the bluffcatchers in a vaccum,
but can that hurt is in the long run?
- I think no? Because they don't know what type of hand we folded, and our stats can still look very legit/standard. So i think we are pretty safe in this type of spots, atleast in a bigger player pool when the spot dosen't show up very often so it's extremly difficult to detect. It would be more of a dangerous exploit if we play a small pool with good players in my opinion.
I want to hear your thougts, on how much you think we should exploit in these type of spots if you agree or think different.