The Game Plan

AJo Turn and Riverplay

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

AJo Turn and Riverplay

Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (6 Players) BN: $67.52
SB: $50.85
BB: $139.22
UTG: $61.42
MP: $50.00 (Hero)
CO: $51.74
Preflop ($0.75) Hero is MP with A J
UTG folds, Hero raises to $1.50, 2 folds, SB raises to $5.00, BB folds, Hero calls $3.50
Flop ($10.50) Q J 6
SB bets $5.50, Hero calls $5.50
Turn ($21.50) Q J 6 4
SB bets $12.00

Hi everybody.

Preflop I should have folded, I misread the 3bet to 2,5x.

On the Turn I get pot Odds from 12:45,5 which means I need 26,4% EQ to call.
Against a range of KK-JJ,AQs,KQs,T9s,98s,AQo,KQo I have 23,3% EQ.
Do you think that is a range that Villain is likely to bet on the Turn (which would mean that Villain is only x/ring for value with AA)? Especially do think that AQo and KQo are standard 3bets?

If I keep all the AQ in his range but delete KQo frim his range I get 26,8% EQ

I need 27,6% EQ (28/101,5).
Even If I delete teh KQo from his range this would not be enough to call a riverjam. Therefore I should be folding teh Turn if it's close I guess.
What do you think?

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