AK Flop Decision OOP in 3bet Pot $3/6 NLH Bovada

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AK Flop Decision OOP in 3bet Pot $3/6 NLH Bovada

Blinds: $3.00/$6.00 (5 Players) BN: $1182.45
SB: $594.00 (Hero)
BB: $438.50
UTG: $703.05
CO: $544.00
Preflop ($9.00) Hero is SB with A K
UTG calls $6.00, CO calls $6.00, BN raises to $30.00, Hero raises to $114.00, BB folds, UTG folds, CO folds, BN calls $63.00
Btn raises to $24.00. Hero 3bets to $87.00. Btn calls
Flop ($225.00) 9 3 8
Hero checks, BN bets $65.00
Flop ($192) Btn bets $65.00

Btn's defending range should look something like this:

JJ - 3 combos (50% freq)
TT - 6 combos
99 - 3 combos
88 - 3 combos
77 - 3 combos (50% freq)
AQ - 12 combos
AJs - 3 combos
KQs - 3 combos
KJs - 3 combos
QJs - 4 combos
QTs - 4 combos
JTs - 4 combos
T9s - 2 combos
89s - 2 combos
KQo - 6 combos (50% freq)

Should Hero c/c here? Feel the K is the best card for us. A is alright. If he has a bluff like QJ or JT, he might not always bluff an A because it looks so strong for our range. Approx 12% of the time we'll hit an A or K on the turn, but we need 20% equity. Sometimes we have some implied odds. Sometimes we'll have reverse IP odds as well if he flopped a set/two pair and we bink an A or K on the turn. Can we bluff c/ship on any turn cards? Appears not and we probably wouldn't have much fold equity either based on the low SPR.

From a range point of view, if I'm c/f'ing this hand, then what hands am I defending? Maybe I should be checking a lot of my range here vs a good player.

If I do c/c here. Then pot will be $322 on the turn with around $440 eff. If villain bets $180-$225 on a non 7, J, Q turn, do we c/c again? Would we c/c an overbet jam?

Here's my thoughts on this spot. What do you guys think?

P.S. Wrote in the numbers on the hand history. Don't know why but when I copy the original format txt in HM2 and paste it into Run It Once, the numbers always come out bigger.

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