Should I go for thin value on the turn?

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

Should I go for thin value on the turn?

Live 1/3 game in Vancouver. A lot of passive players preflop(many multiway pots), aggression ramps up post flop(includes big donk leads and big raises). Deep game, 2/3 or more of the stacks >200BB
MP2 and Cutoff limp, hero is on the button with 4d4c. Hero has 230BB, both limpers cover. General strategy here in this game with low pocket pairs (22-66) is to overlimp and setmine as we can get away with it. SB(160BB) raises to $15, both limpers call, hero follows suit.
Quick info on SB: Seems a bad reg, shoves because he doesn't want to get rivered, complains about making second best hands a lot.

Flop (Pot:$63) Jh 6h 3s
SB cbets $20, both limpers fold.
Hero calls as we are getting a great price and the board is not that good for the preflop raiser. Being in position will also help further playability.

Turn (Pot:$103) Jd
SB bets $25, a very small bet and my instant feeling is that he wants to give himself a good price to draw with two hearts in his hand. He would most likely be going bigger for value with trips on this kind of a board, likewise for overpairs and boats. I think a pair of sixes or threes would probably not bet flop, if they do most likely not turn. Pocket pairs 77-1010 could be taking this line to get a cheap showdown and "to find out where they're at".
Folding is thus out of the question, but what would be better calling or raising?
Calling would allow him to continue his bluffs on the river, thinking this will be a $90-$110 bet into $153 on most rivers. Not having a 4 of hearts in our hand gives him a few more potential flush draws. A lot of rivers are not beneficial to our hand though.
Raising gets value from all flush draws (albeit very thin), as they cannot be ahead of our pair of 4s. If he is trying to find out where he is at with 77-1010 we can probably get him to fold some of those hands by repping trips. We however don't have any blockers.
I don't expect him to be 3betting the turn with flush draws, so we would be folding to that.
If he calls we check back all rivers (except a 4) and fold to donk bets on rivers. I would not expect many donk bets on non heart rivers.

Would love to hear your feedback on whether to call or raise(and sizing)! I will include the further action in the hand later

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